***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2020.-12.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.1 17.9 -0.1 49.6 50.1 14.6 15.1 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.2 14.7 17.8 -0.1 47.8 50.1 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.3 16.7 18.1 -0.1 47.9 49.5 15.8 17.0 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.4 11.8 15.6 0.0 50.3 50.4 11.0 11.8 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 14.3 13.7 15.4 -0.2 46.0 47.5 12.7 14.0 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 11.3 12.8 13.8 0.0 50.5 51.3 11.7 12.8 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.2 17.8 -0.1 48.0 50.1 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 6.5 7.7 13.4 -0.2 46.7 48.2 6.5 7.9 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 15.3 15.0 15.6 -0.1 48.3 48.9 14.1 15.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 14.0 15.0 14.1 -0.1 49.6 49.7 13.8 15.0 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 13.9 14.6 15.0 -0.3 43.7 45.8 13.6 15.0 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 11.4 12.2 14.1 -0.4 43.1 45.5 11.4 12.9 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 12.8 13.6 13.5 -0.3 43.3 46.5 12.8 14.0 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.5 15.6 -0.1 48.9 49.9 14.7 15.6 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.4 17.2 0.1 52.9 52.3 15.7 16.2 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 13.8 15.1 14.4 -0.3 43.4 46.2 14.5 15.2 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.4 17.6 0.0 47.7 50.3 14.7 15.4 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 12.0 13.3 13.3 0.1 53.0 52.1 11.9 13.1 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.6 17.8 -0.1 47.2 49.4 14.1 14.8 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 8.0 9.8 11.1 0.1 52.0 52.3 8.0 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 14.9 14.0 16.9 -0.1 48.2 49.4 13.5 14.5 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 15.1 15.0 17.6 0.1 52.2 52.4 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.0 17.6 -0.2 46.8 48.1 13.7 14.2 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 15.7 15.3 15.4 0.0 49.9 50.3 14.4 15.3 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.0 16.4 -0.1 49.6 49.9 14.1 15.0 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 12.5 13.6 13.5 -0.1 47.1 48.6 12.5 13.8 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.0 14.7 17.1 0.0 50.9 50.5 14.1 14.6 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.5 14.2 16.0 0.0 50.4 50.9 13.1 14.2 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 10.7 12.1 12.7 0.0 52.3 51.7 10.9 11.9 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.4 18.0 -0.1 48.6 50.2 14.3 15.5 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------