***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2020.-05.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.4 18.6 0.6 63.4 62.3 15.2 16.0 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 16.1 16.6 18.5 0.6 64.3 62.9 14.0 15.8 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 17.7 18.2 18.7 0.4 63.2 60.4 16.4 17.5 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 13.8 13.6 16.1 0.7 67.7 64.2 12.0 12.4 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 14.8 15.0 16.3 0.4 60.4 59.1 13.9 14.6 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 13.7 13.8 13.8 0.3 62.5 58.8 12.8 13.6 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 16.6 16.6 18.5 0.6 65.7 63.2 14.9 15.9 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 9.3 9.1 13.7 0.4 64.1 60.4 7.7 8.5 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 15.8 16.1 16.4 0.4 60.9 59.7 14.6 15.6 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 15.9 15.9 14.7 0.5 63.1 61.0 14.8 15.1 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 15.5 15.6 15.7 0.1 57.4 55.0 14.7 15.3 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.5 14.7 0.2 59.2 57.0 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 15.0 14.8 14.2 -0.1 49.2 49.6 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 16.7 16.5 16.3 0.6 65.8 62.9 15.2 15.9 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 17.0 17.1 17.7 0.4 61.6 59.0 16.1 16.9 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 15.8 15.8 15.1 0.0 53.7 52.2 15.2 15.5 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 16.9 17.2 18.3 0.7 67.5 64.0 14.9 16.1 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 14.8 14.6 14.1 0.6 67.1 64.2 13.1 13.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 15.9 16.4 18.5 0.6 62.5 62.1 14.6 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 10.6 10.6 12.0 0.6 68.4 63.6 9.3 9.8 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 15.5 16.2 17.7 0.4 61.6 59.6 14.5 15.3 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 15.9 16.1 18.6 0.8 70.9 66.8 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 15.3 15.5 18.3 0.4 60.3 60.4 14.1 15.2 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 16.5 16.4 16.2 0.5 63.9 62.4 14.8 16.0 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 15.8 16.0 17.2 0.5 61.6 60.3 14.7 15.7 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 14.7 14.6 13.7 0.1 50.9 52.4 13.9 14.6 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 15.5 16.0 17.9 0.6 62.9 61.8 14.3 15.2 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 14.5 15.2 16.4 0.4 60.6 58.5 14.1 14.2 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 13.6 13.3 13.4 0.6 68.2 64.3 11.7 12.3 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 16.4 16.7 18.7 0.6 63.9 62.9 14.8 16.2 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------