***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2020.-28.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 14.6 14.3 17.1 -0.7 39.8 40.1 14.2 14.4 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 92 8 100 14.6 14.1 17.1 -0.7 40.5 40.7 13.9 14.4 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 16.3 15.7 17.0 -1.0 39.6 38.8 15.5 16.1 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 11.8 10.8 14.6 -0.6 40.6 41.0 10.2 11.5 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 13.4 12.4 15.2 -0.7 39.1 39.9 12.3 13.3 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 12.3 11.2 12.2 -0.9 37.8 37.5 11.2 12.1 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 14.7 14.5 17.1 -0.6 40.6 40.9 14.3 14.6 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 92 8 100 7.4 7.0 12.6 -0.3 44.7 45.1 6.6 7.2 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 95 5 100 14.3 13.9 15.7 -0.3 43.3 44.8 13.6 14.2 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 95 5 100 14.2 14.0 13.8 -0.1 46.1 47.0 13.7 14.2 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 93 7 100 14.2 13.7 15.0 -0.6 40.7 41.3 13.5 14.1 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 12.2 11.9 13.5 -0.7 39.8 40.2 11.7 12.1 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 13.6 13.0 13.8 -0.7 38.7 39.3 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 95 5 100 14.9 14.8 15.3 -0.3 46.9 45.4 14.3 14.8 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 15.3 15.0 16.7 -0.6 42.3 42.3 14.8 15.1 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 14.3 13.9 14.2 -0.9 38.2 37.5 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 93 7 100 15.2 14.9 17.0 -0.4 43.0 43.3 14.6 15.1 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 96 4 100 12.8 12.7 13.1 -0.3 45.7 45.7 12.3 12.7 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 92 8 100 14.5 14.1 17.0 -0.8 40.3 40.2 13.9 14.3 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 95 5 100 9.0 8.9 11.1 -0.3 45.2 45.2 8.3 8.9 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 94 6 100 14.3 13.9 16.5 -0.6 41.1 41.2 13.5 14.2 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 95 5 100 14.2 13.8 17.2 -0.4 42.5 43.2 13.5 14.1 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 93 7 100 13.9 13.4 16.8 -0.9 40.4 40.1 13.3 13.7 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 95 5 100 14.6 14.3 15.3 -0.4 44.0 43.7 13.9 14.5 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 14.5 13.6 16.1 -0.7 39.4 40.1 13.1 14.3 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 13.3 12.6 12.2 -1.1 36.6 35.9 12.5 13.0 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 13.9 13.4 16.5 -0.7 39.9 40.3 13.0 13.6 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 13.5 12.9 15.1 -0.8 39.9 39.4 12.5 13.4 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 95 5 100 11.5 11.4 12.4 -0.1 48.4 47.7 10.1 11.5 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 92 8 100 14.7 14.5 17.2 -0.8 40.7 40.1 14.2 14.6 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------