***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 33.7 37.8 23.5 53.6 35.0 31.1 35.1 44.0 63.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 33.8 39.7 26.2 58.7 33.6 31.3 39.7 43.2 56.0 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 33.7 34.1 25.3 58.1 33.2 32.0 34.0 50.8 63.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 27.7 24.7 25.5 52.4 24.5 27.6 33.3 52.6 69.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 32.9 39.0 28.0 55.8 29.8 29.3 39.8 45.4 55.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 25.6 33.1 36.5 60.6 34.1 31.8 33.1 39.5 51.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 33.3 35.7 26.2 58.2 33.7 31.1 35.1 47.5 62.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 53.1 66.2 33.8 64.5 32.5 32.1 66.4 73.5 82.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 30.3 30.1 28.6 53.5 29.7 27.5 31.4 44.8 53.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 43.1 50.5 35.1 58.9 31.2 29.2 50.7 64.8 75.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 25.6 26.3 25.9 62.0 32.5 31.4 26.3 37.3 56.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 26.7 38.5 24.5 61.2 32.2 32.2 38.6 43.8 66.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 17.8 23.6 26.9 58.6 36.4 32.3 20.1 29.3 39.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 51.8 71.3 37.3 67.9 41.2 34.7 57.5 79.3 90.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 14.7 13.4 20.8 48.4 27.8 26.8 18.9 35.0 48.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 20.8 25.4 26.6 62.1 34.5 32.9 23.4 36.9 44.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 33.0 33.1 26.8 60.4 36.1 32.9 32.4 38.0 61.5 29 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 44.3 45.7 41.5 62.4 33.6 30.7 45.7 56.4 66.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 33.6 36.2 26.0 58.9 32.5 31.3 36.3 45.2 68.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 46.6 57.0 44.3 72.0 37.3 35.0 53.8 62.9 71.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 29.2 29.0 24.8 54.9 30.5 30.4 32.6 43.8 62.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 35.6 38.6 27.8 63.6 35.5 33.2 37.0 48.5 68.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 41.1 47.0 26.7 58.8 33.4 30.9 46.3 59.6 72.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 43.6 60.8 34.7 61.7 34.3 32.2 58.6 68.4 77.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 29.3 29.0 27.9 52.5 29.8 28.9 29.2 44.9 76.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 21.7 24.7 23.1 62.7 37.7 35.7 23.6 29.1 41.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 41.4 42.6 28.3 54.4 32.9 30.7 42.6 57.2 65.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 18.9 22.4 22.9 49.9 26.7 27.0 24.4 31.2 40.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 55.3 63.5 41.5 65.5 35.3 32.5 61.0 70.4 94.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 36.3 41.0 25.8 58.6 34.0 31.8 40.9 46.7 73.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------