***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 5.2 17.1 3.6 70.6 65.5 43.6 4.0 9.5 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 4.0 16.4 5.4 112.3 73.5 47.2 2.9 9.1 14.0 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.6 12.0 4.0 77.9 64.3 45.3 4.5 7.4 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.6 14.1 5.3 85.7 67.0 43.8 4.2 8.6 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 6.3 14.9 4.6 73.1 65.0 43.6 5.6 11.7 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.0 22.2 9.3 100.4 71.4 49.7 1.3 4.4 15.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.7 12.2 5.5 114.2 72.2 48.7 3.5 6.3 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 20.6 19.1 6.0 84.3 59.8 45.9 7.8 15.8 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.1 12.6 3.9 58.0 60.9 42.1 4.0 8.4 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.3 10.8 5.2 68.0 57.0 43.1 6.0 9.9 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.4 10.7 4.0 74.2 67.4 43.6 2.2 5.0 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 6.3 19.0 4.5 82.4 67.3 46.5 0.8 13.4 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 1.7 9.9 5.6 91.0 69.9 49.1 0.9 3.7 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.0 15.0 6.0 83.9 68.9 49.5 2.3 9.1 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 1.6 11.6 4.9 90.5 72.2 44.0 1.4 4.3 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 1.0 9.3 4.8 82.7 70.4 45.6 1.3 2.2 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.3 14.2 5.1 98.2 71.1 46.3 3.8 8.1 12.5 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.6 12.9 6.3 68.9 54.6 44.0 4.8 11.8 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 4.8 18.0 5.0 106.7 72.7 46.7 3.5 9.5 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.4 11.1 8.2 95.5 58.5 47.2 4.9 9.3 14.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.9 9.6 3.1 53.2 60.0 40.9 5.7 7.6 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.7 19.6 5.2 99.1 69.8 46.1 4.1 8.9 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 10.8 12.5 4.5 93.1 70.3 47.4 3.9 8.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.4 12.1 5.0 68.7 60.3 45.8 4.4 7.7 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.9 11.0 4.9 81.6 66.2 45.0 4.4 7.9 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.5 9.8 3.8 70.2 70.2 48.9 0.4 5.2 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.3 15.4 4.9 84.6 67.6 44.5 3.5 8.4 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.7 12.5 5.2 81.3 70.1 43.3 2.7 7.4 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 9.1 16.1 6.9 79.5 57.2 45.6 10.0 14.5 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 3.7 17.0 5.1 108.6 71.0 47.8 3.9 7.7 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------