***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 2.0 7.0 4.7 56.3 58.9 39.8 2.1 4.7 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.7 5.8 5.2 53.7 51.8 37.2 2.3 5.2 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.6 8.4 4.7 56.7 55.6 39.2 5.4 7.6 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.5 9.8 3.2 37.3 48.4 37.7 6.1 9.8 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.0 4.7 51.2 56.4 41.3 4.0 7.6 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.3 9.5 6.0 58.1 57.3 41.5 4.5 8.6 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 8.5 6.3 5.5 55.1 51.6 38.3 1.2 5.9 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 10.7 25.8 7.3 73.9 60.9 43.3 12.3 19.3 30.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.9 15.9 5.8 54.0 59.7 41.0 5.0 7.8 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 8.2 21.1 7.6 64.1 60.7 41.1 8.3 12.7 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 5.6 13.0 4.6 63.7 60.3 41.4 4.4 10.1 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 5.0 14.1 4.8 76.0 62.2 44.3 4.9 10.2 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.2 9.7 4.6 70.4 59.3 42.3 3.0 6.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.4 16.6 6.9 59.0 54.9 39.5 5.7 11.8 19.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 1.9 5.2 2.1 32.8 54.4 37.8 1.8 4.1 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 5.0 13.3 4.0 63.6 60.4 40.8 4.4 10.2 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 1.4 3.6 5.8 58.8 52.1 39.3 1.0 3.1 6.7 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 10.3 25.0 9.6 69.0 60.5 41.4 9.5 19.0 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 3.9 9.2 4.8 51.6 52.2 36.1 2.3 8.4 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 8.7 19.5 9.8 77.6 60.9 44.3 8.3 16.6 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.9 8.9 5.0 57.4 59.4 39.0 4.3 7.3 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 3.3 10.3 5.5 58.8 53.6 40.1 2.7 8.9 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.8 8.5 4.6 48.8 51.1 34.5 3.5 8.4 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 6.5 15.9 7.4 64.9 59.3 41.2 5.0 12.1 21.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.8 5.8 4.8 48.0 50.5 38.7 3.9 5.8 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.9 9.6 3.8 85.3 63.2 44.0 2.8 6.8 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.4 7.7 5.4 54.2 55.0 39.7 4.4 6.9 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.9 6.7 2.6 36.5 54.1 37.5 2.0 6.4 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 14.1 27.5 9.5 71.4 60.6 41.9 15.2 23.3 30.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.6 5.7 4.9 53.4 52.9 37.6 1.9 5.1 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------