***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 5.4 9.2 4.5 40.1 45.1 33.5 4.6 11.1 25.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 4.3 11.4 5.7 51.3 49.0 33.0 4.8 12.3 19.9 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 3.7 8.5 5.9 48.8 45.8 33.0 3.1 9.5 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 2.0 3.5 8.0 55.8 41.1 32.6 3.1 5.2 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 3.3 7.9 9.1 60.6 45.4 32.8 3.5 9.1 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 2.6 3.9 11.4 51.9 41.4 32.7 2.6 4.9 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 4.3 9.3 5.4 50.5 46.1 32.6 4.2 11.9 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 6.7 14.7 11.0 64.8 49.7 34.3 7.6 14.8 25.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 1.9 4.7 8.5 53.1 46.7 31.2 2.6 5.2 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 6.9 10.6 11.0 59.0 46.7 32.1 8.7 11.1 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 2.8 6.6 9.4 74.5 53.2 35.4 3.7 6.6 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 3.7 11.3 8.1 63.4 52.1 33.8 6.1 10.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 2.5 6.3 9.3 59.2 48.3 33.9 3.0 6.3 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 5.7 11.9 11.4 71.8 55.8 35.6 4.4 11.1 19.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 0.5 1.1 6.1 48.1 42.5 32.7 0.4 1.4 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 1.3 3.7 9.5 67.8 48.6 34.2 3.5 3.8 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 1.5 4.7 6.0 57.2 50.5 34.4 2.3 4.2 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 4.9 11.7 11.8 54.4 44.9 30.8 9.0 14.9 23.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 1.9 6.1 6.2 55.1 52.6 32.6 2.7 5.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 77 23 0 100 5.2 12.7 13.2 63.5 44.6 32.1 10.6 18.2 26.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 5.3 9.7 6.0 46.1 45.0 31.8 2.3 10.8 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 2.0 8.6 6.8 65.9 53.8 33.6 3.9 7.8 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 3.6 8.6 7.4 62.4 52.0 31.8 5.6 8.1 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 4.8 9.1 9.6 56.0 49.7 33.8 5.0 9.2 20.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 2.4 4.8 7.1 46.5 41.7 33.1 4.5 6.4 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 1.8 5.9 6.3 55.2 50.1 36.2 2.4 5.9 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 5.4 7.8 6.1 42.1 41.8 32.4 6.3 9.3 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 0.8 1.4 7.4 53.2 42.1 30.4 1.1 2.5 5.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 5.8 12.3 11.5 55.1 43.3 31.3 9.2 16.7 31.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 4.8 8.8 5.4 48.0 47.0 32.7 7.3 9.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------