***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2015.-28.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 5.0 7.0 10.7 55.8 42.9 36.6 5.8 9.1 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 14.5 9.3 10.0 52.3 43.0 38.4 7.3 13.1 17.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 15.9 10.9 10.7 59.5 47.4 39.9 6.7 12.3 23.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 4.0 6.4 9.1 46.1 43.8 33.4 3.2 10.2 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.1 3.4 9.6 48.9 44.0 34.8 2.0 7.2 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 1.4 2.1 9.9 52.4 43.3 38.1 0.6 2.8 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.0 8.4 9.9 50.4 42.7 37.5 7.1 10.0 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 4.5 5.6 9.6 52.1 41.4 35.2 2.5 9.6 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.1 4.3 10.3 52.1 43.5 36.4 1.6 5.2 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.1 7.6 11.2 53.2 43.2 36.2 3.5 8.7 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 1.2 2.7 7.9 47.8 42.6 33.7 1.9 3.3 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.1 3.4 7.0 46.4 42.7 34.0 0.7 5.1 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.3 2.6 7.3 42.0 42.8 35.4 1.7 5.0 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 8.9 13.7 13.0 64.8 47.7 39.7 10.8 14.6 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 1.1 1.3 7.8 41.8 41.9 31.7 1.1 2.8 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.8 3.4 8.3 49.7 46.0 38.2 0.9 4.2 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 13.7 9.5 10.0 52.8 44.4 39.3 6.2 11.7 14.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.8 9.0 13.8 63.5 47.5 39.6 4.5 9.8 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 15.0 11.5 10.1 53.0 43.7 37.8 8.7 12.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.2 10.2 13.2 67.2 47.9 40.7 4.4 10.6 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 14.3 9.4 10.7 60.2 48.1 40.1 4.5 9.6 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 13.3 10.7 10.3 54.8 43.8 39.4 6.2 11.3 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 8.1 13.3 10.2 52.9 44.3 36.7 8.2 14.5 22.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 25.5 19.0 12.7 62.7 46.9 40.0 8.5 19.7 34.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 5.6 8.9 11.1 50.8 43.0 34.5 7.2 10.9 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 8.1 5.8 9.2 59.5 49.8 43.8 0.8 5.8 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 5.2 8.2 12.0 54.6 44.0 35.7 6.3 10.6 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 1.6 3.3 7.7 41.7 42.4 30.8 1.8 3.7 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.9 12.8 13.6 66.1 47.1 39.8 7.7 14.7 18.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 14.4 12.8 10.4 54.9 44.3 38.4 11.3 13.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------