***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 28.9 29.7 30.6 2.3 88.1 83.4 27.5 28.0 28.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 28.8 29.9 30.9 2.4 87.8 82.6 27.5 27.8 28.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 28.8 29.4 30.4 2.0 85.4 79.7 27.4 27.9 28.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 21.9 22.1 28.2 1.5 78.0 74.5 20.2 21.2 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 29.3 29.6 28.2 1.4 78.0 74.1 27.5 28.4 29.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 27.8 28.1 25.8 1.3 78.8 73.6 26.2 27.3 27.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 28.5 29.6 30.8 2.3 88.0 83.0 27.6 28.0 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 17.0 17.4 26.5 1.6 80.5 76.4 15.6 16.3 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 28.8 29.0 28.7 1.6 81.1 76.3 27.0 28.4 28.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 28.4 28.7 27.1 1.5 79.3 74.9 26.8 27.8 28.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 28.9 29.3 27.7 1.4 79.2 74.5 27.3 28.2 28.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 28.0 28.2 27.9 1.8 83.5 80.0 26.2 27.5 27.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 29.1 29.3 27.3 1.7 82.2 77.8 27.5 28.8 29.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 28.5 28.9 28.1 1.6 77.1 75.0 27.2 27.5 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 30.1 30.5 29.4 1.7 82.7 78.6 28.2 28.9 29.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 29.8 30.1 27.6 1.4 79.0 74.1 27.8 29.3 29.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 28.2 28.8 30.1 1.9 82.6 78.2 27.0 27.3 27.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 27.6 27.9 26.2 1.4 78.3 74.0 26.1 27.0 27.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 28.4 29.4 30.8 2.4 87.9 82.4 26.9 27.5 28.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 23.3 23.6 24.1 1.2 77.3 71.8 21.7 22.7 23.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 28.9 29.3 29.7 1.8 83.0 77.7 27.3 28.0 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 28.9 29.5 29.8 1.8 81.6 77.4 27.4 27.8 28.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 28.5 29.7 30.4 2.3 88.0 82.1 27.4 27.6 28.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 28.2 28.6 28.1 1.6 78.9 75.5 26.7 27.2 27.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 29.1 29.5 28.7 1.9 84.0 79.3 27.6 27.9 28.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 28.8 29.1 27.6 1.8 85.6 79.5 27.1 28.1 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 28.4 29.6 29.6 2.2 87.5 82.5 27.2 27.5 28.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 29.9 30.3 28.7 1.4 78.3 74.6 28.4 29.1 29.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 22.9 23.3 25.1 1.3 77.9 71.9 21.3 22.0 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 28.5 29.8 31.0 2.4 88.4 83.2 27.4 27.8 28.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------