***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 30.2 31.4 32.2 2.7 86.2 77.9 27.4 28.2 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 30.0 30.7 32.3 2.6 80.4 76.5 27.7 28.4 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 30.1 31.0 32.0 2.4 80.6 75.4 27.4 28.4 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 22.9 24.0 30.0 2.0 81.1 72.9 21.0 21.5 22.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 30.1 31.1 29.8 2.0 80.5 71.7 28.1 28.6 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 28.7 29.0 27.4 1.8 76.9 72.0 26.6 27.6 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 30.2 31.2 32.2 2.6 83.3 76.4 27.9 28.2 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 17.9 18.3 28.1 2.0 78.6 71.9 15.6 16.8 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 29.6 31.1 30.1 2.1 81.1 72.4 27.4 28.0 29.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 29.2 29.8 28.6 2.0 78.7 71.0 27.3 27.9 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 29.7 30.7 29.3 2.0 79.9 71.7 27.7 28.1 29.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 28.9 29.8 29.5 2.3 81.4 74.3 27.0 27.7 28.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 30.0 30.4 28.8 2.1 77.4 73.4 28.0 28.7 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 29.4 29.7 29.4 1.9 74.8 70.3 27.2 28.3 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 30.6 32.0 30.8 2.2 83.9 76.0 29.0 30.0 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 31.1 31.7 29.2 1.9 77.5 71.4 28.7 29.5 30.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 29.8 30.4 31.6 2.2 78.0 72.8 26.9 28.0 29.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 28.3 28.7 27.7 1.8 75.5 69.6 26.6 27.0 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 29.7 30.3 32.3 2.6 80.4 76.6 27.5 28.1 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 24.2 24.1 25.6 1.6 73.3 67.7 22.0 22.9 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 30.1 31.3 31.2 2.3 82.7 74.0 27.2 28.3 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 29.8 30.3 31.3 2.1 78.1 72.0 27.6 28.5 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 29.7 30.5 31.8 2.6 81.1 76.2 27.2 28.1 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 29.1 29.8 29.5 2.0 76.7 71.4 26.8 27.5 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 29.9 32.0 30.3 2.4 83.9 75.8 27.9 28.7 29.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 29.6 30.1 29.3 2.3 80.1 75.6 27.7 28.3 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 29.6 31.1 31.2 2.6 85.4 77.6 27.0 28.0 29.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 30.8 31.3 30.4 2.0 79.3 73.0 28.7 29.9 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 23.8 23.9 26.6 1.7 73.2 67.8 21.5 22.5 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 29.9 31.0 32.5 2.7 82.6 77.2 27.5 28.3 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------