***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 29.9 31.0 32.3 3.4 89.2 81.3 27.1 28.1 30.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 29.5 31.6 32.6 3.6 90.1 80.8 26.6 27.7 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 30.0 31.2 32.1 3.1 85.7 78.6 26.3 27.4 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 22.6 23.8 30.1 2.6 84.6 75.8 19.1 20.6 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 30.1 31.5 29.9 2.5 83.4 74.9 26.3 28.4 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 29.1 30.4 27.7 2.6 89.0 76.7 25.5 26.7 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 29.7 31.1 32.4 3.5 91.3 81.0 26.6 27.7 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 18.0 18.9 28.4 2.7 86.5 76.9 14.7 15.9 16.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 29.6 31.2 30.2 2.7 84.4 75.7 26.3 27.7 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 29.3 30.4 28.8 2.6 83.6 75.2 26.1 27.2 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 29.5 30.8 29.4 2.6 84.0 75.7 26.2 27.8 29.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 29.0 30.5 29.8 3.0 89.9 79.1 25.2 26.9 28.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 30.1 31.4 29.1 2.9 89.0 78.4 27.0 27.9 29.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 29.0 30.0 29.6 2.6 82.0 74.8 26.6 27.1 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 30.5 32.2 31.0 2.9 89.4 79.3 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 30.6 31.6 29.3 2.5 84.3 75.9 27.4 29.0 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 29.2 30.5 31.8 3.1 86.2 78.0 26.1 27.0 28.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 28.4 30.0 27.9 2.5 82.6 74.2 25.5 26.4 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 29.2 31.0 32.5 3.5 88.9 80.5 26.3 27.0 28.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 24.1 25.8 25.9 2.3 82.7 73.6 20.9 22.2 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 30.1 31.3 31.3 2.9 84.8 77.1 26.2 27.7 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 29.6 30.8 31.5 3.0 83.7 76.8 26.8 27.7 28.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 30.0 31.0 32.0 3.4 87.2 79.9 26.4 27.3 28.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 29.1 30.4 29.7 2.7 82.7 75.2 26.2 27.0 27.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 30.0 30.9 30.3 3.0 86.2 78.4 26.1 27.9 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 29.8 31.2 29.5 3.0 91.8 80.0 26.4 27.7 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 29.6 30.6 31.3 3.3 88.8 80.6 26.1 27.4 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 30.9 32.1 30.5 2.6 85.5 76.5 27.2 29.0 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 24.4 25.8 26.8 2.4 81.8 73.0 20.9 21.5 22.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 29.6 31.1 32.7 3.6 90.5 81.2 26.5 27.5 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------