***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 30.1 31.2 30.2 2.8 87.0 78.6 27.9 29.2 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 29.7 30.4 30.7 3.0 89.4 80.0 27.1 28.7 29.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 29.7 31.0 30.1 2.5 83.9 76.3 27.3 28.4 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 23.2 23.9 27.8 1.9 75.0 71.0 19.7 21.1 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 30.6 31.5 27.6 1.9 76.2 70.1 27.7 28.8 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 29.0 29.2 25.3 1.6 74.4 66.8 26.2 27.6 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 29.5 30.5 30.5 2.9 88.0 79.8 27.3 28.5 29.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 18.4 18.9 26.1 2.0 77.8 70.7 15.8 17.0 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 30.0 30.9 28.1 2.1 80.7 71.5 27.0 28.5 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 29.7 30.4 26.5 1.9 77.7 70.1 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 30.3 31.0 27.1 1.9 75.6 69.5 27.0 28.4 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 29.5 30.4 27.4 2.2 79.8 72.2 26.3 27.5 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 30.7 31.5 26.6 2.0 75.8 69.5 27.5 28.8 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 29.4 29.8 27.7 2.1 80.9 73.3 27.0 28.2 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 31.1 31.9 28.7 2.2 79.4 74.4 27.8 29.3 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 31.3 32.0 26.9 1.8 73.9 68.2 27.6 29.7 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 29.1 29.5 29.9 2.5 85.6 77.1 26.5 28.2 29.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 29.0 29.5 25.8 1.8 78.6 70.3 26.1 27.9 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 29.3 30.3 30.6 3.0 89.4 79.6 26.4 28.0 28.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 24.9 25.7 23.7 1.7 76.0 68.4 22.0 23.4 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 30.1 31.2 29.2 2.3 82.0 73.9 27.4 28.5 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 29.5 30.0 29.7 2.4 85.5 77.1 26.8 28.3 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 29.5 30.9 30.1 2.9 88.6 78.6 26.9 28.1 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 29.1 30.0 27.7 2.1 81.4 72.8 26.4 27.5 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 30.2 31.3 28.2 2.4 82.2 75.6 27.4 28.5 29.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 30.0 31.1 27.0 2.2 78.4 72.1 27.0 28.5 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 29.8 30.8 29.2 2.7 86.0 78.2 27.2 28.0 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 31.0 31.7 28.1 1.9 74.8 70.2 27.5 29.5 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 24.0 24.6 24.7 1.7 77.2 69.2 21.2 22.9 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 29.4 30.4 30.7 3.0 88.8 80.0 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------