***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2015.-28.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 28.3 27.9 27.8 0.3 51.0 51.7 26.3 27.8 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 27.5 27.5 28.0 0.3 53.5 52.5 25.8 26.8 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 27.9 27.0 27.6 0.0 46.1 49.0 25.9 27.2 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 21.3 19.3 24.7 -0.7 38.2 40.0 18.7 20.7 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 28.6 26.8 25.4 -0.6 37.0 41.0 25.9 27.8 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 26.9 25.6 22.8 -0.9 36.4 38.2 25.2 26.5 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 27.7 27.8 28.0 0.3 56.6 53.2 25.4 27.2 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.2 14.8 23.5 -0.5 40.5 43.9 14.7 15.5 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 25.5 26.1 26.5 -0.3 40.7 44.2 25.3 27.3 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 25.4 26.2 24.5 -0.5 39.8 43.4 25.1 27.4 28.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 25.7 25.7 25.1 -0.7 35.9 41.1 25.2 27.3 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 27.1 25.9 24.9 -0.2 44.9 46.8 25.1 26.4 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 28.1 27.1 24.8 -0.4 44.1 43.7 26.4 27.5 28.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 25.1 27.1 25.7 -0.3 44.5 46.4 26.1 27.3 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 28.8 27.7 27.1 -0.5 40.7 42.4 27.1 28.4 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 28.8 27.1 25.0 -0.6 39.8 41.1 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 27.1 26.1 27.0 -0.2 45.7 48.1 24.9 26.6 27.9 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 24.8 25.9 23.4 -0.5 41.9 43.4 24.7 26.8 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 27.4 26.9 27.9 0.3 51.7 52.6 25.1 26.7 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 22.4 20.9 21.2 -0.8 38.4 41.4 20.3 21.8 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 28.0 26.6 27.3 -0.2 40.9 45.1 25.5 27.2 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 27.6 26.5 26.8 -0.2 45.1 48.2 25.1 26.9 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 27.6 27.1 27.5 0.3 52.3 53.0 25.4 26.9 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 24.5 26.5 25.6 -0.3 43.7 45.7 25.5 26.6 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 28.1 26.8 26.1 -0.2 42.2 44.9 25.8 27.4 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 27.8 27.0 24.5 -0.2 44.9 45.7 25.9 27.4 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 27.2 26.4 26.9 0.1 47.6 48.8 25.9 26.6 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 28.9 27.4 25.8 -0.7 39.0 40.1 27.4 28.5 29.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.8 20.4 22.5 -0.7 39.5 42.3 19.7 22.1 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 27.8 27.6 28.2 0.4 55.0 52.9 25.7 27.1 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------