***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 15.8 15.9 19.0 1.0 80.4 74.2 15.3 15.5 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 15.8 15.9 19.0 0.9 76.3 72.0 14.7 15.2 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 17.6 17.8 18.8 0.7 72.3 68.3 16.7 17.1 17.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 12.4 12.6 16.5 0.3 63.6 59.3 12.0 12.3 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 14.2 14.3 16.2 0.3 64.1 59.6 13.5 14.1 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 13.1 13.2 14.3 0.3 63.4 59.7 12.5 13.1 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 16.1 16.2 19.1 1.0 77.8 73.6 15.0 15.6 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 8.3 8.5 14.2 0.4 66.1 62.9 7.7 8.2 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 15.3 15.5 16.5 0.4 65.6 62.2 14.7 15.2 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 15.2 15.3 14.8 0.3 62.4 59.1 14.7 15.0 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 15.2 15.2 15.6 0.3 63.4 58.6 14.4 15.1 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 44 56 100 13.3 13.3 15.4 0.6 69.9 66.6 12.4 13.0 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 14.3 14.6 14.8 0.4 66.9 62.2 13.9 14.2 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 15.8 15.9 16.4 0.3 60.7 59.9 15.4 15.7 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 16.8 16.9 17.7 0.5 67.4 63.3 15.8 16.2 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 15.3 15.4 15.4 0.3 64.3 59.2 14.8 15.2 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 16.4 16.4 18.2 0.6 68.5 65.7 15.3 16.2 16.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 13.8 14.0 14.1 0.2 60.5 58.3 13.1 13.7 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 15.7 15.8 18.9 0.9 75.8 71.6 14.8 15.3 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 9.5 9.5 12.1 0.2 59.7 56.2 9.2 9.4 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 15.4 15.4 18.0 0.6 70.2 66.3 14.6 15.0 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 15.5 15.4 18.2 0.6 67.4 65.5 14.6 14.9 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 15.2 15.2 18.5 0.9 74.3 71.2 14.4 14.8 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 15.5 15.7 16.3 0.4 62.3 60.9 14.8 15.3 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 15.3 15.3 17.3 0.6 68.6 66.9 14.7 14.9 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 13.9 14.4 14.9 0.5 70.3 64.6 13.7 13.8 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 15.5 15.7 18.1 0.9 77.1 72.9 14.4 15.0 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 14.3 14.5 17.0 0.4 65.3 60.7 13.6 14.2 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 12.4 12.5 13.4 0.3 60.4 58.3 11.8 12.2 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 16.1 16.2 19.2 1.0 77.0 73.4 15.2 15.5 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------