***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 16.8 18.0 20.5 2.0 90.6 79.5 14.4 15.7 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 16.3 17.4 20.5 1.8 85.9 76.1 14.3 15.2 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 18.5 19.7 20.3 1.6 84.8 75.4 16.4 17.1 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 14.2 14.9 18.1 1.3 81.7 72.4 11.6 12.8 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 15.4 16.1 17.6 1.3 80.7 72.1 13.1 13.9 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 14.3 14.8 15.9 1.2 82.0 72.3 12.0 13.3 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 16.9 17.8 20.6 1.9 86.3 76.5 14.6 15.6 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 9.3 10.1 15.7 1.3 84.6 74.3 7.9 8.7 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 16.5 17.2 18.0 1.4 83.4 74.4 14.2 15.0 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 16.1 17.0 16.3 1.2 82.3 72.4 14.3 14.9 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 16.0 16.4 17.1 1.2 80.0 72.0 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 14.1 14.8 17.0 1.5 87.6 76.8 12.3 13.1 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 15.0 15.9 16.2 1.3 83.0 74.3 13.5 14.1 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 16.8 17.4 17.7 1.2 80.8 70.0 14.9 15.8 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 17.4 18.5 19.2 1.6 87.0 75.9 15.7 16.6 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 16.5 17.2 16.9 1.2 78.5 71.8 14.4 15.3 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 17.4 17.8 19.6 1.4 79.9 71.0 15.5 16.3 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 14.7 15.4 15.5 1.1 80.7 70.3 12.8 13.3 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 16.5 17.5 20.3 1.8 86.8 75.8 14.7 15.3 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 10.6 10.8 13.5 0.9 75.7 67.6 8.8 9.3 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 16.3 17.8 19.4 1.6 85.8 75.9 14.0 14.6 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 16.0 16.3 19.4 1.3 78.4 69.5 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 16.0 16.8 19.9 1.7 85.9 75.6 14.3 14.9 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 16.6 17.5 17.6 1.2 81.7 71.2 14.4 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 16.3 17.8 18.7 1.6 87.9 75.4 14.0 15.1 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 15.1 16.0 16.5 1.4 86.2 76.2 13.6 14.0 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 16.3 18.9 19.6 1.9 90.1 78.3 13.8 14.9 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 15.3 15.9 18.6 1.4 81.9 73.4 13.2 14.3 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 13.3 14.0 14.7 1.0 80.3 68.6 11.6 12.2 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 16.8 17.7 20.7 1.9 86.3 77.3 14.9 15.6 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------