***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 16.4 17.8 20.6 2.2 87.1 78.4 14.6 15.1 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 16.3 17.1 20.6 2.2 87.7 78.6 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 18.0 18.7 20.2 1.8 83.7 75.5 15.8 17.0 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 13.5 14.6 18.0 1.6 80.5 73.8 11.0 11.8 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 14.7 15.1 17.6 1.5 79.9 73.0 12.7 14.0 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 13.7 14.2 15.6 1.4 78.4 73.4 11.7 12.8 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 16.1 17.2 20.7 2.3 88.6 79.5 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 8.8 9.6 15.6 1.6 81.0 75.0 6.5 7.9 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 15.8 16.6 17.9 1.6 82.1 73.7 14.1 15.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 15.8 16.2 16.2 1.4 79.7 72.8 13.8 15.0 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 15.8 16.1 17.0 1.6 80.1 74.4 13.6 15.0 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 13.7 14.8 16.9 1.9 85.6 79.0 11.4 12.9 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 15.2 15.8 16.2 1.7 82.4 78.2 12.8 14.0 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 16.7 17.5 17.8 1.5 81.9 72.6 14.7 15.6 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 17.6 18.3 19.1 1.9 84.2 77.1 15.7 16.2 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 16.2 16.6 16.9 1.6 79.6 75.2 14.5 15.2 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 16.6 17.0 19.8 1.8 79.8 74.6 14.7 15.4 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 14.3 14.8 15.5 1.4 81.0 73.2 11.9 13.1 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 15.8 16.8 20.5 2.1 87.1 78.2 14.1 14.8 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 10.4 10.6 13.5 1.3 76.6 71.9 8.0 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 15.6 16.2 19.3 1.7 82.8 74.3 13.5 14.5 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 15.8 16.1 19.6 1.7 79.8 73.7 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 15.5 16.5 20.0 2.0 86.3 78.1 13.7 14.2 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 16.3 17.0 17.7 1.5 82.1 73.2 14.4 15.3 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 15.9 16.6 18.7 1.8 84.8 76.1 14.1 15.0 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 14.8 15.6 16.4 1.7 85.5 78.2 12.5 13.8 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 15.7 17.3 19.7 2.2 87.8 78.8 14.1 14.6 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 15.4 15.8 18.5 1.7 80.7 74.9 13.1 14.2 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 13.2 13.8 14.7 1.3 79.0 72.3 10.9 11.9 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 16.3 17.0 20.8 2.3 88.4 79.2 14.3 15.5 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------