***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 16.6 16.9 18.7 1.2 79.3 69.3 15.2 16.0 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 16.8 17.2 18.9 1.3 81.5 71.4 14.0 15.8 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 18.2 18.7 18.6 1.0 77.9 66.5 16.4 17.5 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 12.8 13.6 16.3 0.7 68.0 61.4 12.0 12.4 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 14.8 15.4 15.9 0.7 67.1 61.6 13.9 14.6 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 14.2 14.2 14.2 0.7 69.4 62.4 12.8 13.6 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 16.8 17.1 18.9 1.3 79.4 71.4 14.9 15.9 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.8 9.6 14.1 0.8 71.9 63.7 7.7 8.5 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.6 16.3 0.8 71.7 63.0 14.6 15.6 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.4 16.3 14.7 0.7 68.7 61.8 14.8 15.1 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.5 16.1 15.5 0.8 69.2 62.4 14.7 15.3 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 14.1 14.1 15.3 0.9 73.6 65.4 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 15.1 15.5 14.6 0.7 68.1 61.5 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.2 17.0 16.4 0.8 74.9 63.3 15.2 15.9 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 17.0 17.6 17.2 0.8 73.4 63.3 16.1 16.9 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.6 15.2 0.7 67.5 61.3 15.2 15.5 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 17.0 17.5 18.2 1.0 76.0 67.2 14.9 16.1 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.9 14.1 0.7 71.0 62.9 13.1 13.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 16.5 16.9 18.8 1.3 81.7 70.6 14.6 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.8 10.6 12.1 0.6 69.4 60.6 9.3 9.8 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 16.0 16.4 17.6 0.9 75.4 65.3 14.5 15.3 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 15.9 16.3 18.1 0.9 75.9 66.6 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 15.8 16.3 18.4 1.2 81.5 69.8 14.1 15.2 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.8 16.2 0.8 74.2 63.7 14.8 16.0 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 16.2 16.3 16.9 0.9 75.5 66.0 14.7 15.7 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 15.2 15.1 14.7 0.8 71.8 61.3 13.9 14.6 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 16.1 16.5 17.8 1.1 79.7 69.2 14.3 15.2 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 14.6 15.5 16.7 0.7 71.5 62.0 14.1 14.2 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 13.5 14.1 13.4 0.8 72.3 64.1 11.7 12.3 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 17.0 17.3 19.1 1.3 81.2 71.1 14.8 16.2 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------