***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2015.-28.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 13.7 14.0 16.2 -1.4 26.1 29.8 14.2 14.4 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 13.2 13.5 15.9 -1.6 21.2 26.7 13.9 14.4 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 15.2 15.1 16.0 -1.7 22.5 26.2 15.5 16.1 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 87 13 0 100 9.4 9.0 13.4 -2.2 14.2 17.8 10.2 11.5 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 94 6 0 100 11.5 11.3 13.5 -2.2 13.6 16.7 12.3 13.3 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 93 7 0 100 10.7 10.6 11.4 -2.1 16.1 17.8 11.2 12.1 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 13.6 13.8 16.2 -1.4 23.0 28.8 14.3 14.6 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 83 17 0 100 5.8 5.7 11.3 -2.0 17.0 20.0 6.6 7.2 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 90 10 0 100 13.1 12.8 14.0 -2.2 12.5 16.5 13.6 14.2 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 92 8 0 100 13.4 13.2 12.1 -2.2 13.8 16.3 13.7 14.2 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 99 1 0 100 13.1 12.0 12.8 -2.5 9.2 12.5 13.5 14.1 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 84 16 0 100 11.0 11.0 12.2 -2.0 17.0 19.8 11.7 12.1 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 99 1 0 100 11.8 11.8 12.2 -2.1 15.9 15.5 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 88 12 0 100 13.9 13.6 13.9 -2.1 15.3 18.9 14.3 14.8 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 93 7 0 100 14.3 13.4 15.2 -2.3 11.3 14.5 14.8 15.1 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 98 2 0 100 12.9 12.8 12.8 -2.3 14.0 14.8 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 14.2 14.2 15.3 -1.7 17.7 23.4 14.6 15.1 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 91 9 0 100 11.6 11.3 11.4 -2.2 13.2 16.5 12.3 12.7 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 13.2 13.6 15.9 -1.5 22.4 27.3 13.9 14.3 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 7.4 7.4 9.3 -2.1 17.6 19.5 8.3 8.9 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 13.2 13.1 15.6 -1.9 18.9 22.8 13.5 14.2 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 13.2 13.1 15.6 -1.6 20.7 25.6 13.5 14.1 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 12.9 13.2 15.8 -1.5 25.2 28.1 13.3 13.7 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 85 15 0 100 12.6 12.2 13.7 -2.0 15.7 19.3 13.9 14.5 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 12.9 12.5 15.0 -1.8 21.5 23.6 13.1 14.3 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 91 9 0 100 11.8 12.0 11.8 -2.0 21.1 21.5 12.5 13.0 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 12.6 12.4 15.5 -1.6 23.8 26.9 13.0 13.6 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 89 11 0 100 11.8 11.6 14.1 -2.2 13.2 16.7 12.5 13.4 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 90 10 0 100 9.8 9.7 10.6 -2.1 16.3 17.8 10.1 11.5 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 13.7 13.8 16.3 -1.5 23.4 28.7 14.2 14.6 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------