***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.06.2021.-18.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 41.7 57.2 38.7 75.1 49.9 42.0 35.1 57.3 64.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 37.6 42.2 29.5 66.1 40.8 36.3 40.4 47.0 61.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 56.9 48.1 37.4 73.1 46.7 42.0 36.9 50.8 62.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 60.5 53.9 46.3 94.9 55.2 49.6 35.6 52.6 68.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 51.2 45.0 43.5 89.3 52.3 48.6 37.6 44.0 58.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 46.1 40.7 49.5 93.7 51.2 49.0 33.8 40.7 53.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 35.6 46.0 32.3 73.2 42.5 38.3 35.4 49.8 62.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 88.0 73.6 49.7 90.2 50.4 47.1 66.5 73.5 87.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 45.2 40.2 43.8 83.3 49.1 45.8 30.7 40.5 53.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 74.0 62.7 50.3 84.6 48.0 45.2 50.7 65.7 81.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 45.5 38.6 39.8 88.7 51.1 47.9 31.5 37.8 57.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 58.4 53.9 40.6 93.1 53.1 48.7 38.6 50.1 63.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 35.1 35.0 42.7 93.5 53.5 49.7 21.5 31.1 43.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 82.3 74.2 49.2 73.2 44.3 39.5 56.3 76.6 93.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 42.4 43.2 40.7 104.4 59.5 52.1 17.9 35.6 49.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 41.0 39.6 40.7 90.7 53.5 48.6 26.7 36.6 44.7 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 33.1 36.5 30.4 69.9 41.6 36.8 32.4 42.5 61.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 67.9 56.5 57.0 83.4 45.1 43.1 46.7 57.3 71.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 39.0 44.0 30.6 65.7 41.9 37.2 37.4 50.4 65.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 47.8 59.9 57.8 87.2 47.5 44.1 49.6 61.2 70.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 34.8 45.8 40.2 77.6 48.3 43.5 37.0 46.1 62.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 38.1 40.6 30.8 65.2 39.0 35.6 37.7 50.0 74.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 68.0 60.7 34.7 69.2 44.2 39.5 45.9 64.4 72.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 51.4 65.4 48.8 78.8 45.7 42.4 54.7 69.2 77.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 57.6 49.4 45.7 84.1 51.3 45.9 29.6 48.9 75.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 38.2 36.2 36.5 99.2 55.7 51.8 24.9 31.6 41.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 65.7 57.2 43.8 80.2 50.3 43.9 44.3 57.1 84.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 37.8 35.2 44.3 98.4 56.2 51.4 25.0 30.7 38.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 87.3 69.8 57.1 80.8 42.6 40.8 64.9 74.7 92.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 43.8 48.3 31.9 68.5 41.1 37.9 43.4 58.9 73.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------