***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.07.2021.-18.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 7.8 21.0 8.7 86.0 67.8 48.3 4.0 14.2 19.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 5.3 12.4 6.6 77.7 60.8 47.8 3.0 10.1 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.9 15.9 9.1 88.5 67.2 48.1 5.3 9.1 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.5 21.7 10.3 107.8 68.6 51.2 4.4 8.6 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 14.5 19.4 9.4 103.9 69.3 51.5 4.6 10.6 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.1 18.9 12.1 114.5 72.2 53.6 2.3 9.7 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.3 7.5 6.6 75.9 59.4 47.3 3.5 6.4 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 24.1 32.6 12.4 117.4 69.0 54.1 10.4 18.5 28.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.8 14.0 10.0 96.0 67.7 48.7 3.9 7.7 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.3 21.8 12.9 106.9 67.2 51.4 4.9 11.4 20.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.1 15.3 8.5 108.0 70.2 53.5 3.1 8.2 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 8.4 26.5 9.5 122.1 71.9 55.5 5.9 17.5 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 13.1 12.6 10.4 125.1 74.3 58.1 0.9 6.2 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.6 22.8 14.4 99.1 67.0 48.9 2.5 14.0 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 1.6 12.0 8.8 112.2 72.0 49.6 1.2 3.5 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.4 17.0 9.3 114.8 72.2 55.5 1.7 4.8 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.5 13.0 6.3 74.4 58.4 45.2 3.7 9.3 14.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 17.2 24.3 15.9 106.0 65.6 49.4 7.7 13.4 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 6.5 16.2 7.3 82.2 63.2 48.1 4.4 11.3 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.1 17.7 16.0 113.0 66.0 53.0 6.2 10.1 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.7 12.5 9.2 89.4 68.5 47.7 6.0 9.3 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.3 11.4 6.9 74.7 57.7 46.0 4.5 9.1 20.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 11.6 12.2 8.7 86.8 65.7 47.9 5.1 9.4 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.4 14.3 13.6 100.3 67.2 48.0 7.7 11.8 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 12.5 17.8 10.0 93.3 68.9 49.5 5.7 8.9 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 12.1 15.5 9.0 140.9 77.5 59.4 1.7 5.5 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.7 24.1 9.9 91.0 68.0 49.0 3.1 9.7 24.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.0 13.5 10.1 113.2 71.1 52.2 2.3 6.4 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.5 19.4 16.1 103.4 64.2 49.3 14.1 16.0 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.1 13.9 7.2 79.8 61.5 47.9 3.9 7.5 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------