***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.07.2021.-11.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.1 8.7 10.6 97.7 62.1 47.0 1.1 4.4 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.8 9.9 8.7 95.3 60.5 45.9 3.0 5.2 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.9 8.9 10.2 92.4 60.9 50.0 3.7 7.8 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.7 16.1 11.4 107.4 66.9 49.6 1.4 8.3 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.7 11.2 11.8 118.7 69.7 54.6 2.0 6.2 9.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.6 10.9 13.1 108.5 66.8 54.2 4.6 9.2 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.6 10.2 9.8 111.6 63.9 47.7 1.5 8.1 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 22.4 28.1 14.4 124.0 67.8 56.6 10.7 19.3 24.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.4 16.4 12.2 109.7 67.1 53.7 4.3 7.4 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.4 16.9 14.6 116.6 67.6 55.9 6.7 9.2 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.7 11.3 10.9 125.5 69.9 56.1 2.5 4.9 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.4 14.2 11.4 124.5 71.2 55.9 2.1 6.6 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 6.5 11.8 12.1 125.9 71.1 55.6 2.1 4.1 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.1 17.1 13.5 94.0 61.3 47.4 5.9 11.1 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.1 8.7 10.8 125.4 71.3 53.8 1.2 3.3 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.3 13.1 11.1 118.9 70.1 54.1 2.3 7.9 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.4 4.9 8.8 104.5 62.4 46.3 0.9 2.9 5.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.9 18.1 15.8 104.7 65.2 52.0 7.7 12.1 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 5.4 11.8 8.9 90.8 62.0 46.9 5.4 9.9 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.5 20.4 15.3 108.2 63.2 53.3 6.9 10.4 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 9.2 13.5 10.1 96.5 65.2 50.7 5.3 7.4 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.5 11.3 9.8 100.1 63.7 49.0 3.6 9.0 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.6 10.2 9.9 95.0 64.3 48.2 3.3 8.4 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 14.7 15.1 13.6 100.0 63.9 50.4 4.0 11.7 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.0 9.4 11.5 108.0 67.2 50.5 3.6 4.7 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 6.2 10.9 9.5 130.1 71.5 58.8 1.0 3.9 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.3 8.7 11.6 104.7 65.8 47.9 3.1 5.0 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.1 9.9 11.4 112.9 69.2 52.5 1.6 4.2 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.7 22.2 15.4 97.3 60.2 50.0 9.8 18.3 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.0 9.8 9.8 100.8 62.1 46.6 2.6 5.4 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------