***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.06.2021.-04.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 7.8 19.5 12.4 91.4 63.9 45.0 7.9 11.2 24.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 8.6 14.5 8.5 71.1 54.1 40.6 7.4 13.8 24.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 7.0 16.3 11.7 88.1 62.2 44.5 8.1 13.3 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.4 15.7 15.2 117.2 70.4 51.0 3.8 7.2 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 5.5 16.8 15.8 127.7 73.9 56.2 4.1 10.6 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.3 6.9 15.0 106.4 65.1 52.6 3.7 4.9 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 7.0 15.2 9.6 85.3 61.1 44.7 8.3 11.9 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 10.1 29.8 14.1 107.6 66.9 50.8 11.7 17.9 29.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.6 17.1 13.9 105.1 67.5 50.0 3.3 9.5 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 9.8 18.9 14.3 105.4 66.9 50.9 10.6 14.3 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 4.1 15.8 14.4 116.8 70.6 52.8 5.2 7.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 7.6 18.3 12.0 102.7 67.3 49.6 6.2 13.8 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 7.3 9.6 14.5 123.1 72.9 58.4 3.9 6.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 8.3 25.1 13.1 80.9 58.4 42.2 7.9 15.2 30.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.2 15.8 13.8 135.7 75.7 54.0 1.1 2.5 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.1 8.5 13.6 112.4 69.8 52.3 3.5 4.0 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 5.5 15.4 8.8 73.2 56.1 41.5 4.2 13.0 22.7 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 8.2 25.3 14.6 92.4 62.4 47.6 12.3 17.0 25.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 4.7 9.2 9.0 71.3 53.9 39.9 4.6 8.1 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 8.1 25.4 16.4 105.4 65.3 51.3 10.0 16.8 25.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 5.8 17.4 13.6 99.7 66.0 46.3 7.8 11.1 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 6.9 14.2 8.4 64.2 53.3 38.8 7.4 13.4 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 7.4 19.3 9.8 72.1 54.8 38.8 7.5 13.0 21.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 8.9 24.9 13.2 88.0 60.9 45.4 6.2 15.5 33.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 5.3 13.7 16.8 117.7 69.1 51.1 5.4 7.0 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 7.9 13.5 13.7 118.3 71.4 59.3 3.9 6.2 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 9.2 23.2 14.3 95.9 63.5 45.6 8.9 14.3 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.5 15.8 14.6 129.3 73.3 54.2 1.4 4.4 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 10.6 26.4 15.7 92.5 61.2 47.9 10.1 19.0 29.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 8.7 15.4 9.0 72.7 55.1 40.9 8.2 13.3 18.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------