***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.06.2021.-27.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 3.6 6.0 7.1 41.5 38.1 32.9 5.1 9.5 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 4.5 8.1 5.7 37.9 36.5 30.6 5.5 11.8 17.9 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 4.9 8.6 6.4 38.9 40.7 32.2 6.5 12.1 20.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.0 9.8 9.3 60.3 51.3 43.1 3.1 9.6 12.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 2.7 3.5 6.6 37.8 42.6 34.7 3.2 5.8 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.3 4.1 9.3 58.1 49.8 42.0 0.5 4.2 15.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 2.9 7.8 6.3 41.2 34.2 32.0 7.1 9.0 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 4.5 5.5 8.7 45.8 41.9 36.1 3.9 9.1 21.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 2.2 2.7 7.6 43.1 40.6 34.1 1.3 4.9 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 2.6 4.3 8.5 40.7 39.3 32.5 3.0 7.2 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 1.5 2.7 6.0 37.2 45.7 35.7 1.1 3.4 8.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.3 3.5 7.6 51.6 47.8 41.4 0.6 4.0 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 1.5 2.9 5.7 36.1 43.6 34.5 1.9 3.5 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 5.2 6.5 8.1 37.0 37.5 27.5 6.1 11.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.7 4.4 7.3 59.3 58.1 46.8 1.5 3.0 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 1.9 3.0 6.7 43.8 44.9 37.4 1.3 4.4 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 4.2 6.5 6.4 44.4 40.7 33.8 5.0 9.9 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 2.5 2.5 10.7 48.4 37.7 31.4 1.4 7.8 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 4.0 4.9 5.4 35.5 36.9 30.2 4.2 11.8 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 4.4 5.8 10.2 45.1 39.4 31.7 4.4 10.5 15.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.1 7.8 7.3 41.9 41.8 33.3 1.6 9.0 16.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 3.5 5.8 5.7 37.9 41.1 31.8 5.0 8.4 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 4.4 8.9 6.3 39.4 40.0 31.0 6.1 11.4 21.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 5.5 8.0 8.4 42.7 39.4 30.5 5.9 14.0 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 6.1 7.3 7.4 40.0 42.4 34.0 6.4 12.2 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.5 4.2 4.3 37.0 45.9 39.7 0.5 5.8 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.7 6.6 8.0 44.9 40.3 33.7 4.6 11.2 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.2 4.4 8.2 55.2 51.4 43.5 1.8 4.3 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 5.9 8.0 9.9 44.9 36.7 29.9 7.0 12.8 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 5.0 7.4 5.9 38.3 36.7 30.9 7.2 12.5 18.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------