***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.06.2021.-18.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 28.9 29.6 31.7 2.9 89.3 83.7 27.5 27.9 28.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 28.5 29.6 31.3 2.4 85.8 80.2 27.4 27.7 28.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 28.6 29.4 31.9 2.8 86.6 81.7 27.2 27.8 28.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 21.8 23.8 28.8 2.6 90.4 82.4 20.1 21.0 21.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 29.2 29.6 29.3 2.2 83.1 78.2 27.4 28.5 28.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 27.6 27.7 25.5 1.1 70.2 66.4 25.9 27.1 27.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 28.3 29.7 31.2 2.6 89.7 83.0 27.5 27.8 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 17.0 17.4 27.2 2.0 82.6 76.2 15.6 16.2 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 28.8 29.1 29.8 2.4 84.2 79.4 26.9 28.3 28.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 28.4 29.1 28.2 2.4 85.9 79.9 26.6 27.8 28.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 28.7 29.0 29.2 1.9 77.2 73.5 27.0 28.1 28.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 27.7 28.0 28.5 1.7 76.2 71.7 26.1 27.2 27.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 28.9 28.8 27.6 1.1 69.0 65.1 27.3 28.5 28.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 28.4 29.6 29.8 3.0 91.1 85.7 27.2 27.5 28.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 29.7 30.4 30.5 2.1 83.5 77.4 28.2 28.8 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 29.6 29.7 28.2 1.4 72.5 68.5 27.5 29.0 29.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 28.1 29.2 31.3 2.9 92.1 85.9 27.0 27.2 27.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 27.8 29.6 27.5 2.7 90.5 82.8 25.9 26.9 27.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 28.3 29.0 31.6 2.5 84.8 80.2 26.8 27.3 27.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 23.4 24.2 24.8 2.2 88.0 79.7 21.7 22.6 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 28.9 29.9 31.0 2.7 88.1 82.7 27.2 28.1 28.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 7 93 100 28.9 29.9 31.4 3.1 92.2 86.6 27.2 27.8 28.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 28.3 29.2 31.7 2.7 84.1 80.5 27.1 27.6 28.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 28.2 29.5 29.7 2.8 90.2 83.9 26.6 27.1 27.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 28.8 30.8 29.8 2.6 89.8 82.7 27.5 27.8 28.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 28.4 28.5 27.5 1.1 69.6 65.4 26.9 27.9 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 28.4 29.7 30.6 2.7 90.3 84.0 27.0 27.5 28.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 29.8 30.5 29.3 2.2 84.6 77.8 28.2 29.0 29.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 23.2 24.9 26.4 2.6 91.0 82.9 21.3 21.8 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 28.2 29.3 31.4 2.5 85.3 80.1 27.3 27.7 27.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------