***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.07.2021.-18.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 28.4 29.8 31.2 1.4 68.4 62.3 26.9 27.7 29.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 28.6 29.4 30.9 1.2 67.0 60.8 27.3 28.0 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 28.6 29.2 31.5 1.4 67.4 62.4 27.3 28.0 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 21.9 22.3 29.1 1.4 66.4 63.1 20.4 21.3 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 29.1 28.8 29.1 1.0 60.7 59.6 27.6 28.5 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 27.7 27.5 25.7 0.3 57.6 53.5 26.6 27.1 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 28.8 29.2 30.9 1.3 68.3 61.8 27.1 28.2 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 16.7 17.4 27.3 0.9 61.6 58.1 15.0 16.0 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 28.6 28.4 29.2 1.1 60.6 60.2 27.3 27.9 28.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 28.3 28.7 28.0 1.2 63.5 60.5 27.0 27.8 28.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 28.6 28.4 28.7 0.7 58.1 56.4 27.1 28.0 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 28.2 28.0 28.7 0.6 57.9 55.4 26.2 27.7 28.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 27.4 28.5 27.4 0.3 52.6 52.2 27.3 28.5 29.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 29.1 29.1 29.0 1.5 70.1 63.9 27.3 27.8 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 29.6 30.2 30.1 1.1 62.8 60.7 28.8 29.2 30.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 29.9 29.4 28.2 0.5 56.4 54.9 28.3 29.3 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 28.2 29.4 30.9 1.4 69.4 63.2 26.7 27.7 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 28.6 27.8 27.4 1.5 66.9 62.7 26.0 26.9 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 28.2 28.8 31.2 1.2 66.9 61.3 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 23.3 23.7 24.6 1.2 66.6 60.8 21.6 22.7 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 28.8 29.0 30.5 1.4 67.3 62.7 27.3 28.1 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 29.9 29.6 30.9 1.6 70.2 64.5 27.1 27.9 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 29.3 28.8 31.3 1.3 67.5 62.1 27.0 27.6 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 29.5 28.5 29.1 1.5 68.2 63.1 26.6 27.6 28.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 29.0 29.5 29.3 1.4 67.3 62.8 27.9 28.5 29.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 28.7 28.2 28.0 0.2 51.5 51.5 27.2 28.1 29.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 28.5 29.3 30.2 1.4 68.5 62.6 26.6 28.0 29.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 29.9 30.6 29.3 1.1 63.9 60.8 28.5 29.4 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 23.9 23.5 26.2 1.4 67.5 62.5 21.0 22.1 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 28.6 29.5 31.0 1.2 66.9 60.8 26.6 28.1 29.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------