***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.07.2021.-11.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 29.5 30.2 31.8 2.5 81.4 73.4 27.1 28.5 29.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 29.4 30.0 31.4 2.3 77.1 71.7 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 29.5 30.2 32.1 2.5 78.1 72.4 26.5 27.7 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 22.8 23.5 29.4 2.3 78.7 72.1 19.5 21.6 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 29.8 30.5 29.4 1.9 73.9 68.1 26.9 28.2 30.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 27.3 27.9 25.7 0.8 62.9 59.2 25.6 26.7 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 29.5 30.2 31.4 2.5 79.5 73.3 26.3 27.8 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 17.6 17.9 27.6 1.8 71.9 66.2 15.0 16.2 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 29.2 29.9 29.6 2.0 74.7 69.0 26.6 27.7 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 29.0 29.8 28.4 2.1 76.2 69.5 26.3 27.4 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 29.3 29.8 29.0 1.5 69.3 64.5 26.6 28.1 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 27.1 28.6 28.9 1.4 66.8 62.8 25.4 26.5 28.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 28.6 29.2 27.4 0.9 62.8 59.0 27.2 28.1 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 29.1 29.8 29.7 2.8 82.3 74.9 26.9 27.6 28.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 30.3 30.8 30.4 2.0 75.6 69.8 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 29.5 30.5 28.2 1.2 66.3 61.8 27.3 29.1 30.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 29.2 30.5 31.5 2.7 83.1 75.1 26.4 27.2 28.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 27.9 29.1 28.0 2.6 81.9 72.5 25.6 26.3 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 29.1 29.7 31.7 2.4 77.4 71.6 26.6 27.4 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 23.9 24.5 25.0 2.1 77.4 69.6 20.8 22.4 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 29.5 30.3 30.9 2.4 78.0 71.7 26.6 27.8 29.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 29.5 30.6 31.6 2.9 83.6 75.6 27.2 27.9 28.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 29.0 29.8 31.8 2.5 79.0 72.1 26.6 27.5 28.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 28.7 29.6 29.8 2.7 82.1 73.6 26.1 27.1 28.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 29.7 30.6 29.8 2.5 80.9 73.1 26.6 28.0 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 28.2 29.0 28.0 0.8 59.1 58.3 27.1 27.7 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 29.2 30.2 30.7 2.5 82.2 74.0 26.2 27.4 28.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 30.5 31.1 29.5 1.9 74.3 68.9 27.9 29.0 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 23.5 24.7 26.8 2.4 80.4 72.1 20.9 21.7 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 29.5 30.2 31.5 2.3 77.2 71.4 26.7 27.7 28.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------