***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.06.2021.-04.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 30.6 31.2 31.8 3.5 87.9 81.3 27.6 29.3 30.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 30.1 30.6 31.6 3.2 85.5 80.5 27.2 28.0 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 30.5 31.5 32.0 3.3 84.0 79.5 27.0 28.0 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 23.2 24.6 28.6 3.1 86.0 79.8 19.7 21.1 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 31.0 32.3 29.3 2.7 82.5 76.4 27.3 28.8 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 28.8 29.2 25.3 1.3 70.6 66.2 26.0 27.4 29.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 30.1 30.5 31.5 3.4 88.0 82.3 27.0 28.1 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 18.7 19.6 27.1 2.5 81.9 74.0 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 30.4 31.6 30.0 2.9 84.5 77.6 26.8 28.8 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 30.0 31.1 28.2 2.9 84.5 77.4 26.7 27.9 29.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 30.3 31.0 29.2 2.3 79.0 72.9 26.8 28.4 29.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 29.4 30.0 28.3 2.1 78.3 71.0 26.3 27.6 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 30.4 30.4 27.6 1.4 69.6 65.2 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 29.8 30.8 30.2 3.7 88.3 82.5 26.9 27.7 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 31.1 32.0 30.7 2.6 84.2 77.1 28.2 28.7 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 31.4 31.5 28.2 1.7 74.0 68.4 27.5 29.6 30.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 29.3 29.8 31.7 3.8 89.8 84.3 26.4 27.6 29.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 29.0 30.8 27.5 3.2 87.7 79.5 26.0 27.1 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 29.7 30.5 31.8 3.2 84.8 80.1 26.6 27.5 29.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 25.0 25.9 24.7 2.6 85.0 76.2 21.8 23.3 24.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 30.8 32.0 31.2 3.3 85.9 79.5 27.2 28.3 29.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 29.9 30.8 31.9 4.0 90.2 84.6 26.8 28.0 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 29.8 30.6 32.0 3.4 84.6 80.1 27.3 27.6 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 29.7 31.1 30.0 3.4 87.3 80.8 26.3 27.2 29.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 30.4 31.6 29.9 3.1 87.0 80.0 27.3 28.1 30.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 29.9 30.2 27.2 1.4 70.1 65.5 26.9 28.3 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 30.1 30.9 30.8 3.3 88.4 81.3 26.6 28.1 29.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 31.2 32.1 29.3 2.6 83.4 76.4 27.8 29.1 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 24.6 25.8 26.5 3.1 87.8 79.1 21.3 22.5 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 29.6 30.5 31.7 3.1 85.0 79.9 27.1 27.9 29.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------