***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.06.2021.-27.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 29.5 31.0 31.9 4.0 88.9 83.7 25.6 27.9 28.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 29.1 29.9 31.2 3.0 82.6 76.7 24.8 27.3 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 29.4 30.4 31.9 3.7 83.7 79.0 24.9 27.6 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 21.7 23.7 28.2 3.5 84.1 80.9 17.8 20.9 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 29.4 30.7 29.4 3.3 79.5 76.9 25.7 27.5 29.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 26.7 27.4 25.4 1.8 66.0 65.7 24.3 26.5 27.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 29.1 29.8 31.1 3.2 84.0 79.7 24.7 26.9 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 17.0 17.6 26.9 3.0 76.8 73.9 13.8 15.8 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 29.0 30.7 30.4 3.5 81.0 77.9 24.9 26.9 28.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 28.7 29.8 28.1 3.4 80.3 76.9 25.1 26.8 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 45 55 100 28.5 29.0 29.6 2.9 73.3 72.4 25.2 26.8 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 45 55 100 27.5 27.9 28.1 2.7 72.3 70.7 24.7 26.4 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 27.7 28.0 28.1 1.8 61.6 63.3 25.4 27.5 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 29.3 31.4 30.2 4.0 89.2 81.9 25.2 27.6 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 29.6 30.0 30.9 2.8 76.3 74.9 25.9 28.5 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 28.3 29.1 28.4 2.1 64.4 66.2 25.8 28.1 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 28.7 29.6 31.2 3.5 85.9 82.0 24.6 26.4 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 28.2 29.6 27.2 3.5 82.7 77.4 24.3 26.3 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 28.7 29.8 31.5 3.3 82.2 77.2 24.3 26.5 28.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 23.2 24.2 24.7 3.0 77.0 74.2 20.2 21.7 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 29.7 31.0 31.6 3.8 86.0 81.0 25.0 27.3 28.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 29.3 30.9 31.3 3.8 87.6 83.4 24.6 26.5 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 28.9 29.7 31.7 3.6 82.6 78.1 24.6 26.8 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 28.7 30.5 30.0 3.8 86.3 79.8 24.6 26.7 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 29.3 31.4 30.2 3.5 85.8 80.7 25.4 27.8 28.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 27.6 28.0 26.9 1.9 66.3 64.9 25.3 27.4 27.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 28.6 30.9 30.9 3.6 88.3 82.8 25.1 27.3 28.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 29.7 30.0 29.2 3.0 77.2 76.1 26.4 28.4 29.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 23.7 24.6 26.4 3.5 82.1 77.5 19.5 22.0 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 28.9 29.9 31.4 3.2 82.0 77.2 24.4 26.9 28.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------