***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.06.2021.-18.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 15.8 16.4 20.3 2.1 95.2 88.0 15.2 15.5 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 7 93 100 15.9 17.2 20.0 2.0 92.1 86.6 14.6 15.2 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 17.7 19.0 20.5 2.1 93.3 87.7 16.6 17.0 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 12.9 14.3 17.5 1.8 93.2 86.8 12.0 12.2 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 14.5 14.8 17.7 1.7 89.6 85.3 13.6 14.0 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 13.3 13.5 14.8 1.2 86.1 79.4 12.4 12.9 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 16.1 16.9 20.1 2.1 93.5 88.1 15.0 15.5 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 8.7 9.0 15.0 1.5 90.0 83.5 7.6 8.1 8.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 11 89 100 15.7 16.0 17.7 1.7 91.2 86.5 14.6 15.2 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 10 90 100 15.6 16.2 16.0 1.7 92.5 86.8 14.6 15.1 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 15.4 15.7 17.1 1.4 87.0 82.1 14.3 15.0 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 13.3 13.8 16.0 1.3 85.9 80.3 12.4 13.0 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 14.6 14.8 15.3 1.1 82.5 78.1 13.9 14.1 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 3 97 100 16.4 17.2 17.9 2.1 96.2 91.0 15.3 15.7 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 17.0 17.3 19.0 1.6 90.5 83.6 15.8 16.3 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 16.0 16.2 16.2 1.2 84.2 79.2 14.7 15.1 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 16.4 17.8 19.9 2.2 94.5 89.9 15.3 16.1 16.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 14.2 14.9 15.5 1.9 95.3 90.5 13.2 13.6 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 15.7 16.8 20.1 2.0 92.3 86.8 14.7 15.3 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 9.9 10.8 13.1 1.7 94.0 87.8 9.2 9.3 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 15.6 16.0 19.3 2.0 94.6 88.6 14.5 15.0 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 15.7 16.8 20.1 2.3 96.1 90.9 14.5 14.9 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 15.2 16.2 20.1 2.1 92.1 87.2 14.3 14.7 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 3 97 100 16.2 17.2 17.8 2.1 96.3 91.0 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 15.4 15.9 18.6 1.9 93.1 86.2 14.7 14.9 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 14.3 14.6 14.9 1.2 86.0 80.1 13.6 13.8 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 15.6 16.3 19.4 2.0 94.8 87.5 14.3 14.8 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 14.6 15.2 17.8 1.6 91.2 84.6 13.7 14.1 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 6 94 100 12.7 13.6 14.7 1.8 94.7 89.2 11.8 12.1 12.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 16.2 17.2 20.3 2.0 92.2 86.3 15.2 15.4 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------