***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.07.2021.-18.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 16.2 16.2 19.9 1.3 71.9 66.2 14.3 15.0 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 16.1 16.3 19.7 1.1 72.3 64.4 14.1 14.9 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 18.4 18.2 20.2 1.2 71.9 66.1 16.5 17.2 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 14.0 14.0 17.3 1.0 68.7 64.7 11.8 12.5 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.5 14.5 17.2 0.8 66.6 62.7 13.3 14.2 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 12.1 13.6 14.9 0.4 61.1 57.4 11.8 13.1 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 16.4 16.6 19.9 1.2 75.4 65.4 14.9 15.5 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.8 9.1 15.1 0.8 68.0 63.6 7.7 8.5 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 15.1 15.8 17.3 0.9 69.0 64.2 14.2 14.7 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 15.5 16.0 15.9 1.0 71.0 65.4 14.2 14.6 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.4 16.8 0.6 63.7 60.6 14.0 14.8 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.3 13.7 15.9 0.6 63.2 60.7 12.1 13.1 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.4 14.8 14.7 0.3 58.6 57.1 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 16.6 17.1 17.5 1.2 75.3 68.4 15.1 15.7 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 16.7 17.0 18.8 0.9 68.8 62.9 15.8 16.4 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.7 15.8 0.5 60.8 58.8 14.2 15.2 15.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 17.1 17.3 19.6 1.3 75.3 66.0 15.4 16.5 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 14.4 14.9 15.1 1.2 77.5 69.3 12.8 13.5 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 16.1 16.3 19.9 1.2 71.7 65.0 14.6 15.4 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 10.2 10.6 12.6 1.0 76.2 67.1 8.8 9.2 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 15.8 16.1 18.9 1.2 70.8 66.6 13.8 14.7 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 15.7 16.1 19.6 1.3 75.0 67.6 14.3 15.1 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 15.8 16.1 19.8 1.2 72.2 66.1 14.1 15.1 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 16.3 16.7 17.3 1.2 74.9 68.4 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 15.8 16.0 18.3 1.1 70.9 65.7 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 13.3 14.2 14.6 0.4 60.9 57.4 13.3 14.1 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 15.8 16.4 19.1 1.2 72.7 66.1 13.8 14.5 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.6 15.2 17.6 0.8 67.5 62.8 13.1 14.4 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 13.1 13.6 14.5 1.1 76.9 68.9 11.5 12.0 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 16.4 16.4 20.0 1.1 71.7 64.6 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------