***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.06.2021.-04.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 16.5 17.3 20.4 2.6 90.4 84.3 15.2 16.0 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 16.9 17.8 20.1 2.4 90.4 84.0 14.5 15.7 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 18.8 19.4 20.7 2.6 91.4 85.0 16.6 17.9 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 14.2 15.2 17.6 2.3 90.5 84.0 11.5 12.9 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 15.6 16.5 18.0 2.2 90.3 83.2 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 14.3 14.6 14.9 1.7 85.4 79.7 12.3 13.4 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 17.0 17.6 20.2 2.6 91.6 85.7 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 9.7 10.4 15.1 1.9 87.3 81.3 7.8 8.3 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 16.6 17.2 18.1 2.2 89.2 83.8 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 10 90 100 16.3 16.9 16.3 2.2 88.8 84.0 14.5 15.1 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 16.0 16.9 17.4 2.0 87.8 81.6 14.2 15.2 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 14.1 14.8 16.2 1.8 85.2 79.4 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 15.4 16.2 15.7 1.6 85.0 78.7 13.7 14.7 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 6 94 100 17.2 18.4 18.2 2.6 91.2 87.0 15.1 15.6 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 17.4 17.7 19.2 2.0 88.3 82.5 15.8 16.6 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 16.7 17.6 16.6 1.7 84.4 79.3 14.8 15.7 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 17.4 18.2 20.0 2.7 92.7 86.2 15.1 16.0 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 15.2 16.2 15.7 2.4 91.1 86.0 13.1 13.8 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 16.7 17.5 20.3 2.5 90.7 84.1 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 11 89 100 10.7 11.9 13.4 2.1 89.0 83.2 9.0 9.8 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 16.4 17.5 19.5 2.5 91.7 85.3 14.2 15.4 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 8 92 100 16.3 17.8 20.3 2.8 93.8 87.3 13.8 14.8 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 15.7 17.1 20.3 2.6 90.3 84.2 14.3 15.3 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 16.8 18.0 18.1 2.6 92.2 87.1 14.5 15.6 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 16.4 17.1 18.8 2.3 88.7 82.3 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 15.3 15.9 15.1 1.7 85.5 77.9 13.8 14.3 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 16.5 17.7 19.5 2.4 89.4 83.2 13.8 15.3 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 15.4 16.4 18.0 2.2 89.9 83.8 13.4 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 14.2 14.6 14.9 2.3 89.7 85.1 11.6 12.5 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 16.9 17.8 20.4 2.5 90.3 83.9 14.7 16.3 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------