***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.06.2021.-27.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 15.8 17.0 20.2 2.5 83.0 81.1 14.1 14.5 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 15.7 16.1 19.8 2.1 76.5 76.1 13.8 14.3 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 17.8 18.6 20.4 2.4 81.2 79.8 15.2 16.1 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 13.0 13.6 17.3 2.1 80.4 78.7 10.0 11.8 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 13.9 14.1 17.9 2.1 77.3 77.8 12.3 13.1 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 12.9 12.8 14.3 1.4 71.8 71.8 10.9 12.1 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 15.9 16.6 19.8 2.3 80.8 78.8 13.9 14.4 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 8.1 8.2 14.5 1.5 70.1 72.4 6.3 7.6 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 15.8 16.3 17.8 1.9 74.7 75.9 13.7 14.1 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 15.4 15.7 15.7 1.7 74.2 75.5 13.7 14.1 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 15.2 15.1 17.2 1.7 71.7 73.5 13.6 14.0 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 12.7 12.9 15.7 1.5 69.1 71.2 11.5 11.8 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 14.2 14.1 15.7 1.3 67.6 69.5 12.5 13.6 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 16.4 17.3 18.0 2.3 85.5 83.3 14.3 14.9 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 16.3 16.1 18.8 1.6 72.0 73.3 14.8 15.6 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 15.4 14.7 16.4 1.4 68.3 69.9 13.7 14.1 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 16.1 16.5 19.7 2.5 82.2 81.1 14.2 14.9 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 14.0 14.7 15.5 2.1 80.9 80.4 12.2 12.8 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 16.2 16.8 19.9 2.2 78.2 77.3 13.7 14.3 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 9.7 10.0 13.4 1.9 77.7 77.1 8.1 8.7 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 15.3 16.6 19.4 2.3 83.5 81.5 13.7 14.1 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 15.5 16.5 20.1 2.6 86.1 83.4 13.3 14.1 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 15.4 15.9 19.9 2.3 80.2 79.1 13.2 13.7 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 15.9 16.6 18.0 2.3 84.2 82.9 13.7 14.6 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 14.9 15.0 18.7 2.0 75.0 75.7 13.3 14.1 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 14.0 14.2 15.1 1.9 78.0 77.0 12.5 13.2 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 15.1 15.6 19.4 2.3 79.5 78.6 13.4 13.8 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 14.5 14.7 17.6 1.9 76.1 75.8 12.5 13.6 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 12.6 12.8 14.4 1.9 77.0 77.3 10.0 11.3 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 16.1 16.5 20.1 2.2 77.1 76.5 14.0 14.3 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------