***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.06.2016.-17.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 67.1 96.4 85.8 168.7 87.6 74.5 36.3 51.6 63.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 72.6 96.1 89.5 192.4 89.4 77.0 39.8 47.9 65.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 71.6 113.8 86.3 175.4 89.8 74.7 36.2 51.0 56.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 76.0 89.4 68.8 154.3 79.7 69.3 34.9 50.6 62.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 70.1 80.4 66.3 148.8 77.6 68.5 37.4 43.9 62.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 56.8 56.7 60.0 127.7 71.8 63.6 33.4 42.6 53.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 71.1 97.4 92.3 197.8 92.1 78.8 35.0 49.8 62.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 116.7 122.5 70.1 134.0 72.2 67.1 66.4 72.9 106.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 56.4 65.6 72.9 151.3 79.8 70.3 36.7 45.7 52.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 88.4 88.3 78.1 141.3 75.9 68.8 53.5 68.3 84.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 61.7 67.7 62.0 139.5 73.1 67.0 33.8 41.7 61.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 71.1 63.5 55.2 128.6 68.3 64.4 37.8 50.5 61.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 42.6 46.7 53.1 124.0 66.9 62.9 25.1 32.9 46.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 94.5 103.6 90.9 149.3 79.0 69.5 66.5 79.3 95.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 56.8 71.5 61.7 159.8 82.1 68.9 16.3 36.8 47.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 52.5 54.0 57.7 136.1 72.1 66.2 29.9 43.0 48.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 71.9 90.4 85.4 179.6 88.1 74.9 33.9 54.2 64.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 88.0 104.4 86.6 143.5 79.4 69.8 47.7 58.9 75.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 84.0 110.9 87.0 182.0 88.1 74.9 37.0 52.4 72.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 73.8 74.2 79.7 137.2 76.2 68.8 50.6 62.8 70.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 78.9 95.8 77.1 162.8 84.2 72.9 37.0 46.1 62.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 78.9 98.8 78.9 157.7 83.5 68.8 37.9 50.0 67.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 76.0 101.1 84.7 169.0 88.0 72.7 49.6 64.8 72.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 97.6 113.9 83.3 153.8 81.9 71.6 63.7 68.9 81.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 77.8 87.0 80.4 152.9 83.8 71.1 34.4 51.1 73.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 48.9 47.2 42.9 125.3 71.4 62.6 28.7 36.5 42.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 80.3 116.4 86.2 158.5 86.1 72.9 46.6 56.1 81.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 44.1 50.3 64.3 152.1 79.2 68.1 23.2 34.4 39.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 110.7 126.3 85.5 141.3 78.0 69.6 65.4 77.3 99.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 78.2 105.0 90.2 189.4 90.3 76.4 44.6 58.3 73.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------