***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.07.2016.-17.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.9 16.2 8.6 109.4 66.3 51.9 4.0 8.9 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.8 12.7 7.4 90.4 66.2 46.7 4.0 10.4 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.3 14.8 9.0 114.9 66.8 49.9 2.7 8.6 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 14.4 37.0 9.4 143.1 80.3 58.1 4.0 8.7 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.4 24.7 8.7 121.2 78.5 56.2 7.7 10.1 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 11.1 30.0 11.0 129.6 80.4 59.8 3.6 7.0 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.2 7.8 7.3 89.4 64.6 47.2 2.5 6.0 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 24.9 30.1 9.6 102.6 71.7 54.6 10.7 19.8 28.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.9 22.6 9.3 113.4 76.3 54.0 3.3 7.2 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 7.5 26.0 10.9 106.2 72.0 53.5 6.0 14.9 20.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.2 21.1 8.5 125.3 78.4 58.6 3.1 9.4 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 18.7 26.5 7.8 113.0 75.6 57.1 6.6 16.4 23.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.9 21.0 8.7 122.8 76.5 58.6 3.7 6.9 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.6 24.4 13.6 126.3 76.7 54.1 5.4 12.9 23.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 7.1 24.4 8.8 152.2 84.2 57.6 1.0 3.5 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 10.6 20.1 9.0 133.6 79.7 59.8 3.1 8.4 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.7 16.9 8.2 94.8 68.0 47.2 3.7 9.0 16.5 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 7.1 28.3 13.1 110.8 71.7 53.5 6.7 12.9 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 14.3 19.3 8.2 96.9 67.8 47.4 6.8 10.6 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.1 17.6 12.6 108.9 70.9 53.8 7.2 13.1 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.8 14.5 9.3 123.9 73.9 55.4 4.9 9.0 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 13.1 20.8 9.2 97.8 67.9 49.1 3.9 9.3 20.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.2 18.4 9.9 117.2 72.8 49.8 5.1 8.3 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 13.4 16.2 11.9 121.7 73.6 53.6 6.7 12.1 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.5 18.6 9.3 121.8 72.6 54.3 5.3 8.4 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.2 14.6 6.5 117.4 77.4 58.4 2.6 6.6 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.6 15.4 8.8 106.9 65.6 50.7 3.5 7.1 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.3 24.1 9.6 141.2 81.8 58.4 2.3 6.8 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 14.2 30.4 13.5 113.3 70.9 54.7 14.9 18.9 26.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.6 13.8 7.5 92.1 63.9 46.3 3.3 6.4 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------