***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.07.2016.-10.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 8.3 19.6 15.3 142.2 74.5 57.3 1.1 4.2 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.5 17.8 13.3 133.8 71.7 54.2 4.0 6.1 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 10.1 15.8 13.0 125.5 71.1 54.9 2.8 8.1 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.8 22.1 14.3 149.5 79.9 60.2 2.3 5.5 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 11.3 16.3 13.4 138.5 76.2 61.1 2.8 9.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 10.9 15.7 13.9 133.1 74.6 63.1 3.7 9.9 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 4.8 20.7 13.5 135.0 73.8 51.0 7.0 9.0 17.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 24.9 27.8 13.3 129.0 75.5 61.7 11.8 16.8 22.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 9.1 18.7 13.6 131.0 72.9 60.5 3.2 6.9 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.1 21.7 14.6 127.3 73.5 60.3 6.9 12.8 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 11.5 14.2 11.0 122.6 76.6 61.0 4.1 7.3 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 13.8 15.2 10.4 121.3 76.2 62.4 3.4 6.8 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 5.8 11.7 11.1 131.1 77.7 64.6 2.2 4.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 18.5 27.7 17.3 121.1 67.5 58.3 6.1 13.5 27.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.7 9.2 10.1 123.5 75.0 56.2 0.5 3.0 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 8.8 13.7 11.7 134.4 77.1 62.1 4.3 7.5 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 5.1 8.5 13.0 127.8 69.9 50.8 0.8 2.9 5.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 19.6 19.4 17.8 134.1 73.5 63.3 8.2 12.4 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 14.1 18.9 13.1 127.2 70.6 54.4 6.4 10.8 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 18.4 21.6 17.8 149.5 75.9 66.3 8.2 11.4 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.3 14.0 14.4 144.0 74.2 59.1 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 4.5 18.7 13.3 121.8 71.0 52.7 4.3 7.7 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 13.2 22.0 13.4 119.7 69.2 53.8 7.4 9.4 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 15.4 18.5 15.4 125.8 70.3 60.0 7.1 13.0 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 8.1 22.0 17.6 159.0 78.5 59.3 3.8 4.7 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 11.8 15.7 8.9 137.7 76.2 66.5 1.4 5.7 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 8.4 15.6 17.6 148.0 76.2 57.4 2.7 5.6 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.4 16.9 12.6 133.7 76.6 58.1 1.0 2.1 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 25.9 27.9 18.1 135.6 75.0 64.0 9.6 15.7 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 11.0 16.0 13.6 129.1 70.8 53.7 4.8 8.0 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------