***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.06.2016.-03.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 22.6 31.1 24.9 167.0 82.5 67.3 5.4 11.2 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 22.6 27.5 19.5 162.6 78.3 63.3 7.8 13.0 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 17.9 23.0 24.0 164.6 83.6 62.2 6.8 11.2 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 14.9 21.7 20.7 170.6 83.2 65.1 5.5 7.2 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 13.8 22.8 21.6 181.6 87.0 66.0 3.8 5.7 11.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 11.3 11.9 18.5 137.8 76.2 62.4 3.7 4.9 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 14.4 17.2 17.6 142.9 79.1 59.2 4.5 8.3 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 33.0 42.1 21.3 159.1 77.9 62.6 9.3 17.4 31.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 19.0 24.0 25.1 193.6 86.1 68.5 5.1 8.9 18.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 21.5 27.6 23.2 164.5 78.7 63.7 7.0 12.0 17.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 14.3 18.9 21.1 164.3 82.2 63.1 2.6 6.3 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 20.6 26.1 19.4 161.6 80.2 63.7 4.6 13.6 17.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.6 12.7 17.2 137.0 78.5 59.0 1.8 6.2 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.1 30.4 23.2 151.1 77.7 60.9 6.3 11.6 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 10.2 15.6 16.9 163.3 78.6 64.0 0.6 2.0 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 8.6 12.7 18.4 148.1 79.9 62.1 1.3 3.9 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 14.5 23.8 17.3 139.7 74.2 58.9 4.0 10.8 19.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 22.8 26.8 24.6 155.5 78.2 64.2 11.5 14.6 19.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 19.1 24.0 21.5 173.6 81.4 64.6 4.8 10.0 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 26.1 28.5 20.4 141.5 73.1 61.2 8.3 17.9 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 19.4 30.6 25.2 178.0 85.7 65.4 7.7 9.6 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 16.6 20.1 18.0 143.1 74.4 58.1 9.0 14.4 18.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 23.7 36.7 23.1 176.6 85.5 64.3 8.2 9.9 21.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 32.0 42.7 24.8 159.7 78.8 62.9 9.3 14.2 32.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 13.8 18.2 25.2 166.4 81.1 65.0 7.0 11.4 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.0 16.4 13.7 133.6 74.3 56.0 2.7 6.5 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 21.5 27.5 24.3 151.3 77.9 64.4 6.1 11.9 19.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 11.7 17.9 18.0 165.1 81.9 64.4 2.0 4.5 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 32.4 37.5 22.6 143.3 73.0 61.4 11.4 19.8 31.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 22.9 32.7 20.4 161.0 81.8 61.8 6.2 12.1 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------