***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.06.2016.-26.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 20.3 36.4 37.0 213.9 88.2 73.1 5.6 14.3 20.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 21.7 46.7 49.3 301.5 92.6 78.7 3.2 10.8 17.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 23.1 41.4 40.3 246.4 89.0 73.8 6.5 12.4 20.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.8 18.0 24.4 149.8 71.9 60.4 3.1 9.2 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 12.9 25.9 22.7 143.4 76.6 63.2 2.5 9.9 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 12.7 16.2 16.6 114.0 67.3 54.8 2.8 10.8 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 27.7 55.1 54.0 332.0 93.6 79.2 3.2 8.8 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 13.2 40.2 26.0 135.1 73.4 64.7 3.0 7.2 23.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 7.9 18.8 24.9 150.3 75.0 65.9 2.6 6.2 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 24.2 34.8 29.5 153.1 75.7 68.3 2.4 8.1 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 11.3 19.8 21.4 137.3 75.0 63.4 1.4 7.0 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 8.3 15.1 17.5 115.0 69.4 60.1 2.0 5.1 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 6.7 11.3 16.1 109.8 67.4 61.1 2.4 4.9 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 27.7 36.5 36.7 178.6 80.1 70.2 7.2 12.3 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.5 22.3 25.9 183.2 81.4 60.4 1.4 3.6 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 8.1 18.2 18.5 128.2 70.7 61.0 1.5 5.8 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 26.6 47.4 47.0 286.6 92.3 78.2 5.0 9.9 20.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 17.0 23.2 31.2 161.5 78.3 70.2 1.5 7.3 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 20.5 57.8 44.2 264.6 90.1 76.5 4.2 9.9 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 16.8 19.7 29.0 143.7 77.2 67.0 6.1 11.1 15.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 19.6 27.1 28.3 181.3 80.5 67.6 1.3 10.5 23.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 19.9 38.7 38.4 225.5 88.9 71.3 4.4 7.4 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 23.4 44.8 38.4 219.9 84.7 73.8 8.7 12.5 21.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 30.3 39.4 31.2 187.1 80.8 71.7 7.8 16.9 23.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 20.2 26.6 28.3 151.8 78.5 64.7 5.1 9.2 19.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 9.4 17.8 13.8 116.1 72.0 60.9 1.0 6.8 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 25.3 37.0 35.5 195.6 84.7 70.1 5.0 12.7 22.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.7 10.1 24.1 160.6 75.0 60.3 1.7 6.5 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 24.2 28.8 31.3 162.1 78.3 70.3 8.2 16.5 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 22.4 52.6 48.8 299.0 92.1 76.7 3.9 10.9 19.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------