***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.06.2016.-17.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 28.0 27.9 28.0 0.0 52.0 51.7 27.5 27.9 28.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 27.6 27.5 28.0 -0.1 50.8 50.4 27.3 27.4 28.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 27.9 27.7 28.1 -0.2 48.3 48.5 27.1 27.7 28.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 21.0 20.8 26.0 0.0 48.0 50.8 20.0 20.9 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 28.6 28.4 26.5 -0.1 49.0 48.5 27.2 28.4 28.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 27.0 27.4 24.5 0.3 60.7 57.9 25.9 26.9 27.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 27.7 27.6 28.0 0.0 52.4 51.7 27.4 27.5 28.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 16.3 16.2 24.5 -0.1 52.0 49.6 15.7 16.1 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 28.2 28.1 26.8 -0.1 50.5 49.4 26.7 28.1 28.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 27.7 27.5 25.2 -0.1 51.8 49.2 26.4 27.5 28.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 28.1 28.0 26.5 0.0 53.6 51.0 26.7 27.9 28.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 27.1 27.2 25.9 0.0 54.8 51.8 26.2 27.0 27.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 28.5 28.5 25.9 0.3 57.4 55.6 27.1 28.3 28.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 27.6 27.4 26.3 0.0 52.6 50.7 26.9 27.4 28.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 28.9 28.7 27.9 0.1 53.2 54.1 28.3 28.7 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 29.0 29.1 26.2 0.2 55.4 53.7 27.6 28.8 29.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 27.2 27.2 28.0 0.2 55.9 55.4 26.8 27.0 27.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 26.9 26.8 24.4 -0.2 52.7 48.6 25.8 26.6 27.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 27.4 27.1 28.0 -0.1 50.1 50.3 26.7 27.1 27.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 22.8 22.6 22.4 0.0 53.9 51.2 21.8 22.6 23.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 28.1 27.9 27.7 -0.2 48.4 47.7 27.0 27.9 28.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 27.7 27.9 27.9 0.3 56.9 56.8 27.1 27.5 28.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 27.6 27.3 28.0 0.1 51.9 52.6 27.0 27.3 27.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 27.1 26.9 26.2 -0.2 50.8 48.2 26.5 26.9 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 27.9 27.8 26.6 0.0 53.1 51.7 27.4 27.7 28.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 28.4 28.5 26.0 0.7 68.5 63.5 26.9 27.7 28.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 27.4 27.5 27.4 0.1 55.7 54.7 26.9 27.3 27.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 29.1 28.8 26.7 0.0 48.1 50.8 28.0 28.9 29.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 22.0 21.7 23.6 -0.1 52.1 49.6 21.3 21.7 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 27.6 27.5 28.0 -0.2 49.4 49.5 27.1 27.5 27.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------