***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.07.2016.-17.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 26.5 27.3 28.2 -0.6 48.7 45.1 26.4 27.3 29.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 28.5 27.9 28.5 -0.3 51.4 48.2 27.0 27.9 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 26.7 27.8 28.6 -0.5 48.8 45.9 27.2 27.8 28.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 19.9 20.6 26.6 -0.7 44.4 43.0 19.9 20.7 21.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 27.0 27.7 26.7 -0.7 44.7 42.6 27.3 28.2 28.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 25.7 26.8 24.6 -0.4 44.7 44.4 26.0 26.9 28.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 28.6 28.2 28.4 -0.4 48.1 47.1 27.1 28.2 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 14.9 15.0 25.0 -0.6 43.6 44.1 14.8 15.8 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 28.3 27.6 26.9 -0.6 46.6 44.2 26.5 27.7 28.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 26.6 27.3 25.6 -0.6 46.9 44.7 26.6 27.3 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 26.5 27.5 26.5 -0.6 46.1 44.4 26.7 27.6 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 25.7 26.5 26.3 -0.6 44.1 44.1 25.7 26.9 28.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 26.9 27.5 25.5 -0.6 42.9 43.0 27.2 27.7 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 28.0 27.7 26.6 -0.2 53.0 49.6 27.0 27.4 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 29.5 28.8 27.8 -0.5 46.2 44.6 28.5 28.9 30.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 27.5 28.5 26.2 -0.6 45.4 43.9 27.9 28.6 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 28.3 28.1 28.5 -0.1 52.1 50.3 26.5 27.8 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 25.6 26.3 25.0 -0.5 48.9 45.7 25.3 26.4 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 28.1 28.1 28.6 -0.3 53.2 48.8 26.4 27.8 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 21.0 21.1 22.6 -0.6 41.7 44.3 20.7 22.1 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 28.6 27.3 27.7 -0.8 44.3 43.1 26.9 27.9 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 28.4 28.8 28.4 0.1 57.0 52.1 26.8 27.9 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 28.3 28.0 28.6 -0.2 53.4 50.0 26.5 27.7 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 26.3 27.6 26.5 -0.4 51.0 46.9 26.1 27.4 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 26.9 27.6 26.5 -0.8 43.8 42.9 27.4 28.0 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 26.9 27.5 26.5 -0.1 46.0 48.1 26.7 27.8 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 26.5 27.3 27.4 -0.5 47.3 45.3 26.4 27.7 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 27.7 28.8 27.1 -0.6 46.1 43.5 28.2 28.9 29.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 20.5 21.1 24.0 -0.5 47.1 45.7 20.5 21.4 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 28.6 28.2 28.4 -0.4 50.2 47.2 26.4 28.2 29.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------