***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.06.2016.-26.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 29.2 29.0 28.9 1.7 73.7 69.1 25.0 27.9 28.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 28.7 28.4 28.5 1.1 63.9 63.3 24.4 27.6 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 28.8 28.5 28.6 1.2 65.6 62.3 24.3 27.8 28.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 22.1 22.0 26.4 1.8 72.3 69.9 17.9 20.9 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 29.5 29.0 27.5 1.8 72.2 68.2 25.2 28.0 28.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 28.8 29.9 25.9 2.7 86.2 79.7 24.3 26.3 27.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 28.4 28.8 28.6 1.4 69.2 65.7 24.3 27.0 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 17.0 16.9 25.0 1.7 71.0 67.1 13.6 16.2 16.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 28.8 28.4 28.0 1.6 68.4 66.4 24.5 27.1 28.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 28.9 28.1 25.8 1.5 65.3 65.0 24.8 27.3 28.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 29.1 29.4 27.9 1.9 74.2 69.0 24.6 27.4 28.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 27.9 28.8 26.7 2.1 78.2 71.4 24.5 26.3 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 29.6 31.0 28.1 2.9 88.2 79.0 25.4 27.5 28.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 28.1 28.0 26.7 0.9 56.9 58.2 24.8 27.7 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 29.4 29.8 29.2 1.8 74.3 71.8 26.3 28.2 29.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 30.0 31.0 27.7 2.4 80.3 74.3 25.5 28.3 29.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 28.1 28.2 28.2 1.4 70.5 67.0 23.6 26.9 27.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 27.3 27.2 24.5 1.2 58.9 61.6 24.1 26.9 27.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 27.2 27.9 28.4 1.1 63.0 62.3 24.2 26.8 28.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 23.5 23.3 23.2 1.8 70.8 68.3 19.8 22.4 23.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 29.1 28.6 28.9 1.5 69.4 65.5 24.4 27.9 28.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 27.7 28.9 28.0 1.4 70.2 66.2 24.3 27.3 28.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 27.7 28.2 28.3 1.3 65.5 62.6 24.4 27.4 28.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 27.4 27.5 26.8 1.0 56.7 59.4 24.2 26.9 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 29.1 29.5 28.1 1.9 77.5 71.6 24.4 27.7 28.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 29.1 31.3 27.1 3.1 91.4 80.9 25.1 27.0 28.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 28.4 28.9 28.6 2.0 79.7 72.6 24.2 27.0 28.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 29.7 29.8 27.5 1.7 70.3 69.1 26.7 28.4 29.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 22.9 22.9 24.0 1.4 62.4 63.3 19.0 22.6 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 28.5 28.5 28.6 1.2 65.4 63.5 24.4 27.2 28.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------