***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.06.2016.-17.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 15.7 15.8 18.7 1.0 80.4 76.3 15.1 15.5 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 15.8 16.1 18.4 1.0 79.9 75.3 14.5 15.2 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 17.5 17.7 18.8 0.9 77.3 72.9 16.6 17.0 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 12.8 13.5 16.6 1.1 83.9 79.1 11.8 12.1 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 14.4 14.6 16.8 1.0 83.6 78.6 13.7 14.0 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 13.3 13.4 14.7 1.2 87.6 83.8 12.5 12.9 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 15.9 16.1 18.5 1.0 77.8 73.3 15.1 15.4 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 8.5 8.9 14.5 1.1 84.9 81.4 7.5 8.1 8.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 15.6 15.8 16.9 1.1 84.9 79.9 14.7 15.1 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 15.4 15.8 15.4 1.1 85.0 81.3 14.6 14.9 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 15.4 15.6 16.5 1.1 85.3 80.5 14.4 14.9 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 13.3 13.7 15.4 1.1 83.3 79.9 12.4 12.9 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 14.6 14.9 15.1 1.1 85.6 81.1 13.9 14.1 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 16.1 16.3 16.6 0.9 80.6 75.7 15.3 15.6 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 17.0 17.2 18.3 1.2 84.8 81.7 15.7 16.1 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 15.9 16.2 15.9 1.1 85.3 80.7 14.7 15.1 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 16.4 16.9 18.3 1.2 82.2 77.5 15.3 16.0 16.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 14.1 14.2 14.7 1.0 83.0 79.4 13.3 13.5 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 15.6 15.9 18.4 1.0 80.1 75.0 14.7 15.2 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 11 89 100 9.8 10.0 12.5 1.1 83.6 80.6 9.1 9.4 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 15.5 15.6 18.1 0.9 81.2 75.3 14.6 15.0 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 15.3 15.8 18.3 1.1 82.2 76.4 14.4 14.8 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 15.0 15.1 18.4 1.0 79.6 75.5 14.3 14.6 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 16.0 16.3 16.6 0.9 79.6 75.9 14.7 15.2 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 15.3 15.7 17.6 1.2 84.6 79.6 14.5 14.9 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 14.2 14.4 14.6 1.1 84.3 81.8 13.6 13.7 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 15.4 15.9 18.1 1.2 83.3 78.7 14.2 14.8 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 14.6 14.9 17.1 1.1 84.0 79.7 13.6 14.0 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 16 84 100 12.4 12.8 13.9 1.0 82.7 78.8 11.7 12.0 12.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 16.0 16.2 18.6 1.0 78.9 74.0 15.2 15.4 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------