***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.07.2016.-17.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.1 18.1 -0.1 49.3 51.2 14.3 15.1 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.4 18.0 0.1 57.1 53.8 13.7 14.8 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.5 17.3 18.4 -0.1 52.5 51.5 16.1 17.2 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.0 12.5 16.0 -0.1 50.4 50.7 11.6 12.4 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.1 15.9 -0.1 48.9 49.6 13.0 14.2 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.2 12.8 14.2 0.1 49.1 52.1 12.2 12.9 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.7 18.1 0.0 53.7 52.6 14.8 15.4 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.4 13.9 0.1 55.5 52.9 7.6 8.3 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 15.2 15.2 16.0 0.0 54.1 50.8 14.5 14.9 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.2 14.7 0.1 55.5 52.7 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 15.0 14.8 15.5 0.0 52.0 52.0 14.4 14.8 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.2 14.7 0.0 52.3 51.7 12.4 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.2 14.0 0.0 49.7 51.7 13.5 14.3 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.3 16.2 0.1 55.1 54.1 14.7 16.2 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 16.7 16.7 17.5 0.0 54.1 52.2 16.0 16.5 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 15.4 15.2 15.0 0.0 48.7 52.1 14.2 15.2 15.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 15.1 16.6 18.0 0.3 60.8 55.9 15.2 16.3 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.8 14.3 14.1 0.1 57.3 53.9 12.9 13.5 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.8 18.1 0.1 58.3 54.1 14.1 15.4 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.8 11.7 0.2 58.5 54.8 8.7 9.7 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.0 17.4 -0.2 49.3 49.6 14.0 15.0 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 14.1 15.7 17.9 0.3 62.9 56.1 14.1 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.1 15.5 18.0 0.2 59.8 54.7 13.8 14.8 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.6 16.0 0.1 54.9 53.0 14.5 15.5 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.2 16.6 -0.1 48.9 49.9 13.8 15.3 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.2 14.0 13.9 0.1 52.2 52.6 13.5 13.9 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.3 14.9 17.4 0.0 51.0 51.9 14.0 14.8 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 14.5 14.3 16.5 -0.1 51.2 51.3 13.5 14.2 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 12.1 12.0 13.5 0.1 55.5 53.6 11.4 11.8 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.0 18.2 0.0 54.1 52.9 14.7 15.6 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------