***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.06.2016.-03.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 15.7 15.8 18.4 0.8 60.5 62.7 15.1 15.6 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 45 55 100 16.2 16.3 18.2 0.8 67.8 63.2 14.2 15.3 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 17.4 17.6 18.6 0.7 59.4 60.8 16.6 17.2 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 12.7 13.3 16.3 0.9 65.5 65.3 11.3 12.3 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 14.3 14.6 16.6 0.8 65.3 64.3 13.3 14.1 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 13.6 13.7 14.3 1.0 69.2 67.0 12.3 12.9 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 15.8 16.3 18.3 0.7 64.7 62.4 14.5 15.6 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 8.9 9.1 14.2 0.9 68.0 66.1 7.2 7.9 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 16.0 15.6 16.9 0.9 67.5 66.4 14.2 15.1 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 15.8 15.7 15.2 1.0 68.9 67.1 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 15.7 15.6 16.3 0.9 69.0 66.6 14.0 15.0 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 46 54 100 13.4 13.5 15.2 0.9 66.3 64.5 12.1 12.5 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 14.9 14.9 15.0 0.9 67.8 66.8 13.2 14.3 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 16.6 16.3 16.6 0.8 66.9 64.1 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 17.0 17.1 18.2 1.1 70.4 69.2 15.6 16.4 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 15.9 16.2 15.7 0.9 69.8 66.3 14.2 15.3 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 16.8 17.0 18.1 1.0 71.3 66.0 14.8 16.1 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 44 56 100 14.5 14.3 14.6 0.9 67.4 65.5 12.5 13.3 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 15.7 16.0 18.2 0.8 66.4 62.7 14.4 15.5 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 9.4 10.3 12.4 0.9 67.6 66.0 8.6 9.2 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 15.3 15.4 18.0 0.7 61.6 62.4 14.0 15.2 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 15.8 15.6 18.2 1.0 68.8 65.6 13.6 14.7 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 15.1 15.1 18.2 0.8 63.0 63.2 13.6 14.9 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 45 55 100 16.2 16.1 16.6 0.8 66.6 63.9 14.1 15.4 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 15.1 15.6 17.5 0.9 64.4 64.6 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 14.7 14.4 14.4 0.9 66.0 65.6 13.1 14.2 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 15.2 15.7 17.9 0.9 63.8 64.3 13.4 15.0 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 45 55 100 14.6 14.5 16.8 0.9 67.1 66.0 13.2 13.9 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 12.3 13.3 13.8 0.9 67.8 65.6 11.4 12.0 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 16.2 16.5 18.4 0.7 62.9 61.7 14.3 16.1 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------