***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.06.2016.-26.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 15.7 17.7 20.0 2.9 89.6 87.3 14.1 14.6 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 15.8 16.6 19.3 2.4 85.8 81.7 13.5 14.5 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 17.8 18.5 19.7 2.3 83.8 80.6 14.9 16.4 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 13.2 16.3 17.9 2.9 91.7 89.3 9.6 11.6 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 14.2 15.3 18.5 2.9 90.2 88.4 12.4 13.1 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 13.1 15.1 16.2 3.3 96.6 94.4 11.2 11.9 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 15.8 16.6 19.4 2.4 84.3 81.7 13.7 14.4 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 8.4 10.5 15.7 2.8 90.3 88.3 6.3 7.4 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 7 93 100 16.1 17.0 18.6 2.8 91.2 87.9 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 15.6 16.9 16.8 2.8 90.6 87.7 13.1 14.3 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 15.3 17.1 18.2 2.8 91.2 88.7 13.1 14.2 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 13.2 14.5 16.8 2.8 89.8 87.9 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 14.1 16.6 17.2 3.0 95.2 92.3 12.7 13.7 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 16.3 16.8 17.4 2.0 79.6 79.7 14.1 14.6 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 16.3 18.8 20.1 3.1 94.2 92.8 14.8 15.3 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 15.8 17.2 17.7 2.9 92.0 90.2 13.3 14.3 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 16.2 16.7 19.0 2.4 85.7 82.4 14.3 14.7 16.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 14.3 15.0 15.8 2.3 86.4 83.4 11.8 12.8 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 16.0 16.8 19.3 2.3 84.9 81.0 13.7 14.1 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 9.9 10.4 13.8 2.5 88.3 84.8 7.7 8.7 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 15.5 16.6 19.6 2.6 88.9 84.7 13.4 14.3 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 15.5 16.3 18.9 2.1 83.2 79.7 13.3 14.0 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 15.4 16.2 19.2 2.3 84.4 80.9 12.8 13.5 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 16.0 16.6 17.7 2.1 81.6 80.5 13.6 14.5 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 15.1 17.6 19.7 3.3 96.0 90.3 13.1 14.0 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 14.0 15.9 16.2 2.9 94.4 92.2 12.4 13.1 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 15.0 17.3 19.8 3.1 94.5 89.3 13.3 13.7 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 14.4 15.5 18.5 2.9 92.5 90.7 12.4 13.2 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 12.7 14.6 14.9 2.3 86.3 83.1 9.8 11.0 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 16.1 16.9 19.6 2.4 85.0 81.5 13.7 14.7 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------