***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.07.2017.-16.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.2 6.0 7.6 69.2 57.2 40.2 3.9 5.0 15.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.5 10.8 9.0 91.4 67.2 44.5 3.0 5.7 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.4 12.1 8.3 71.4 59.5 39.4 3.1 7.2 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 2.8 7.7 5.1 52.3 54.0 37.0 2.1 6.8 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 4.3 10.8 5.6 57.8 56.1 38.4 4.4 8.8 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.9 8.0 5.3 45.8 48.3 38.0 3.0 8.2 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.3 7.4 8.9 90.2 64.9 44.7 1.9 4.3 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 15.4 28.4 7.7 64.8 55.7 41.3 19.9 27.0 30.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 3.5 9.4 6.9 62.2 56.9 38.1 3.8 7.5 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 6.4 19.8 8.8 68.2 57.8 40.9 7.0 15.5 22.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 4.3 13.8 5.4 59.5 56.3 38.8 2.4 10.8 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 9.5 17.5 5.1 55.1 53.0 39.0 9.4 17.0 24.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.1 9.5 4.4 48.4 50.5 39.0 5.4 9.5 16.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.3 9.7 9.8 66.5 56.1 41.7 4.4 7.8 22.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 1.4 4.6 3.5 43.9 53.1 38.2 1.0 3.6 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 6.2 13.0 4.5 51.8 53.3 38.7 5.1 12.8 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.6 7.9 7.0 67.3 58.3 40.8 3.0 6.2 14.3 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 9.4 23.3 11.2 76.8 59.6 43.1 12.9 18.9 26.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.4 11.4 8.9 85.6 64.2 44.1 5.1 8.7 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 8.1 15.9 10.5 74.7 56.8 44.0 9.4 14.1 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.4 9.7 6.9 63.6 56.1 37.9 5.4 9.1 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.3 11.4 7.9 75.5 60.6 42.4 2.8 9.1 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.2 13.4 8.2 71.7 58.3 42.2 4.7 8.8 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 7.3 14.2 9.7 71.2 57.9 41.8 6.8 12.2 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.7 9.1 6.6 61.2 54.8 38.4 4.0 8.3 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.7 7.5 3.8 56.2 56.6 43.5 3.4 5.2 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.1 6.0 7.7 69.2 56.7 39.8 2.8 5.5 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.2 7.0 4.1 44.7 52.2 37.9 0.6 5.3 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 15.7 22.5 11.5 77.1 58.2 43.6 16.3 19.8 28.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.2 14.1 9.8 98.2 68.6 45.4 3.3 6.4 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------