***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.07.2017.-09.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 11.0 15.1 13.2 105.7 68.0 52.4 2.0 5.2 14.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 12.1 14.7 11.8 102.1 67.5 49.9 4.8 8.8 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 12.4 15.0 11.9 95.2 64.0 52.6 3.3 9.8 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.2 14.1 12.1 111.5 69.2 55.5 1.9 4.5 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.6 15.2 12.3 107.9 69.7 55.9 2.0 9.4 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.4 10.5 14.2 111.9 69.7 51.9 2.0 4.8 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.6 22.0 13.1 113.0 67.9 51.2 7.0 12.2 19.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 16.3 23.2 13.8 113.2 67.3 55.9 9.4 12.5 22.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.3 14.5 12.9 100.6 64.7 54.7 2.2 7.3 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 14.2 19.6 15.1 108.3 65.5 54.9 5.3 10.3 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.4 11.3 11.7 116.9 70.6 55.4 3.6 5.9 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.3 12.8 11.1 113.9 69.1 55.2 3.5 6.3 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.6 7.3 11.9 119.8 69.6 54.7 1.6 4.2 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 18.2 21.4 16.3 103.1 65.2 53.3 4.7 13.3 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 3.9 6.6 11.2 120.2 74.3 57.9 0.7 2.3 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.2 9.1 11.9 121.1 70.9 56.2 2.4 5.8 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.6 11.6 11.8 100.5 65.6 49.7 2.1 4.7 11.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.5 13.0 17.4 107.7 66.3 54.2 5.7 10.1 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.6 16.2 11.5 98.1 66.8 50.3 5.4 8.9 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 13.3 18.5 17.0 118.1 68.3 57.0 8.2 11.3 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.0 13.5 12.6 101.5 68.2 53.4 4.6 8.8 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.3 15.5 11.9 98.5 65.1 49.6 4.0 9.2 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 14.1 20.4 11.6 94.1 65.7 51.9 4.4 10.6 20.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.5 15.0 100.0 64.9 53.1 7.0 11.6 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.1 20.0 14.2 110.8 70.3 54.7 3.2 6.4 17.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.1 8.5 9.0 113.0 71.4 53.3 2.6 4.5 7.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.8 14.4 14.4 108.5 68.7 52.6 3.4 7.1 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.8 11.5 11.8 114.6 70.0 56.6 1.2 3.5 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 17.5 24.3 18.5 115.8 67.1 56.3 10.0 14.9 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 11.1 13.8 12.0 101.4 65.0 51.1 6.2 8.8 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------