***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.8 14.3 13.1 72.2 55.8 41.7 9.1 14.1 18.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 8.0 16.7 12.8 86.1 62.0 46.6 8.3 13.8 18.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 8.3 16.2 14.1 80.1 57.0 43.6 7.9 13.2 19.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.2 12.0 12.4 81.4 59.0 42.5 5.9 9.9 15.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.8 8.5 11.8 73.9 54.4 39.1 3.8 6.4 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 2.4 5.8 12.2 70.9 53.4 43.2 4.1 5.7 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 5.9 10.9 12.6 86.4 61.1 47.1 5.8 8.8 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 7.7 19.0 11.9 70.8 51.2 39.6 10.1 18.3 36.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.0 9.6 12.5 73.9 53.7 39.4 4.1 8.1 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 4.4 10.8 13.6 75.8 52.6 39.4 5.0 10.1 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.9 7.7 12.0 73.1 52.1 38.8 2.9 7.1 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 5.0 12.1 9.8 64.9 49.8 38.3 4.4 12.3 16.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 2.8 8.1 9.9 64.7 55.2 39.8 2.6 6.9 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 9.4 20.1 17.3 85.0 58.2 44.7 8.4 15.5 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 1.2 8.0 12.3 90.4 65.2 45.4 0.1 2.5 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.1 6.0 10.4 68.3 54.2 39.9 1.2 4.2 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 6.1 16.2 11.8 83.0 60.8 46.5 4.8 10.8 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 7.8 18.1 16.5 86.8 56.7 44.3 11.0 15.7 23.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 6.3 13.9 13.5 88.2 61.7 47.1 7.2 10.3 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 9.7 19.6 14.5 79.8 55.2 44.1 8.9 17.5 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 6.1 10.0 13.1 76.5 54.4 40.3 7.0 9.6 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 14.3 15.3 13.2 91.0 63.4 47.0 8.2 13.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 6.0 13.4 14.3 88.1 60.3 47.3 7.2 9.7 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 12.5 21.6 16.9 91.2 58.6 45.5 9.6 19.6 33.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 7.0 12.9 13.9 75.9 56.5 41.5 7.3 10.8 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.0 9.6 10.2 74.9 57.4 45.6 3.1 6.2 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 8.1 17.2 14.3 74.9 55.4 41.6 7.3 14.1 21.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.1 5.8 11.2 79.6 60.3 41.6 2.0 4.6 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 27.9 24.8 17.8 89.9 56.8 46.2 12.6 22.0 31.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 19.7 20.2 13.1 83.7 59.7 46.3 8.9 16.7 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------