***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.06.2017.-25.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 3.6 4.6 3.4 21.9 30.0 25.7 5.4 11.0 18.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 4.1 3.0 3.1 21.9 30.7 26.0 5.6 13.4 19.0 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 4.0 7.2 3.9 26.6 33.2 28.0 7.1 11.6 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 3.1 5.1 5.4 37.7 44.5 36.6 4.1 5.6 15.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.6 10.0 5.5 39.5 49.0 38.0 2.5 10.1 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 5.8 9.6 7.3 49.9 46.8 40.4 4.4 11.5 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 2.6 5.1 3.0 21.0 32.4 25.2 5.5 8.8 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.4 9.8 10.1 65.0 53.1 44.3 2.6 7.2 23.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 3.4 7.1 5.7 39.1 43.2 33.7 3.9 9.2 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 5.1 9.4 8.9 52.7 47.7 38.8 4.0 9.6 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.8 8.2 6.4 48.6 51.6 42.4 2.5 7.6 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 11.5 10.7 7.6 60.0 53.9 45.7 2.0 8.2 15.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.6 7.3 5.1 34.9 47.9 39.3 2.5 7.4 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 6.1 10.0 6.7 38.8 40.7 32.0 6.7 13.8 22.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 1.8 3.5 3.7 30.6 46.1 35.1 1.4 4.4 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.3 7.1 5.1 38.3 48.9 39.1 3.6 7.2 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 2.7 2.5 3.7 26.0 31.6 27.2 3.0 8.3 21.8 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.1 4.7 9.7 53.8 47.2 38.7 1.6 6.6 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 2.8 3.5 3.5 23.7 32.2 26.9 3.6 9.5 18.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.4 11.8 67.5 52.5 45.9 5.8 11.9 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 3.2 2.6 4.8 33.1 36.8 29.7 1.1 10.0 22.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 3.6 4.0 3.7 24.7 32.9 27.5 4.0 8.9 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 6.2 9.2 4.7 30.7 35.8 30.2 9.0 12.7 17.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 6.0 12.0 6.5 40.3 42.1 32.9 3.1 17.4 23.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 3.8 6.5 4.2 24.6 36.0 28.5 4.8 9.2 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 12.3 14.0 5.0 47.3 54.3 46.7 4.5 10.8 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 3.9 5.2 3.6 21.3 31.2 25.6 5.6 12.3 20.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.0 6.4 5.6 40.9 49.6 38.8 1.8 6.4 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.5 9.6 9.4 52.7 46.7 38.8 5.9 13.0 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 4.3 4.8 3.0 20.5 30.0 25.3 6.4 9.0 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------