***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.06.2017.-16.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 28.6 29.4 30.1 2.5 86.9 80.7 27.4 27.6 28.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 28.5 29.4 30.5 2.8 86.9 82.0 27.0 27.4 28.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 28.4 29.4 30.2 2.4 84.6 78.9 27.0 27.6 28.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 21.7 22.8 27.7 2.3 87.0 80.0 20.0 20.7 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 29.0 29.4 27.9 1.9 82.4 76.0 27.1 28.3 28.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 27.4 27.6 24.6 1.0 71.6 66.8 25.8 26.7 27.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 28.2 28.7 30.2 2.6 85.1 80.5 27.2 27.4 28.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 16.6 16.9 25.3 1.2 73.5 68.4 15.5 16.0 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 28.5 29.4 28.6 2.2 85.3 78.4 26.6 27.8 28.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 28.3 28.7 26.5 1.6 78.1 71.9 26.4 27.5 28.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 28.6 28.9 27.8 1.9 82.3 76.2 26.6 27.8 28.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 27.6 28.0 26.8 1.5 78.2 72.5 26.1 26.9 27.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 28.8 29.0 26.3 1.2 73.1 68.6 27.1 28.1 28.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 28.0 28.3 27.6 1.6 77.5 71.7 26.6 27.3 27.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 29.7 31.4 29.7 2.7 91.2 84.8 28.1 28.5 29.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 29.6 30.0 27.2 1.7 79.9 74.2 27.5 28.7 29.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 27.8 28.9 30.2 2.8 87.8 82.4 26.6 26.9 27.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 27.4 27.6 25.3 1.1 72.0 66.4 25.8 26.6 27.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 28.3 29.2 30.5 2.9 87.8 82.6 26.4 26.9 27.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 22.6 22.8 22.5 0.5 59.6 58.5 21.7 22.4 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 28.7 29.2 29.3 2.0 82.2 75.9 27.0 27.8 28.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 28.6 29.7 29.9 2.7 87.0 81.8 26.8 27.3 28.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 28.2 29.3 30.4 2.9 88.6 83.3 26.9 27.2 27.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 27.7 28.2 27.6 1.6 77.8 71.7 26.4 26.7 27.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 28.5 29.2 28.3 2.1 83.5 77.1 27.2 27.6 28.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 28.3 28.7 26.1 1.3 75.5 70.5 26.9 27.6 28.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 28.0 29.1 29.1 2.3 85.4 79.2 26.7 27.2 27.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 29.8 30.6 28.3 2.2 86.1 79.8 28.0 28.8 29.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 22.6 22.8 24.1 0.8 66.7 62.8 21.1 21.6 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 28.2 29.4 30.4 2.7 86.2 81.3 27.0 27.2 27.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------