***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.07.2017.-16.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 29.1 30.1 30.6 2.0 77.4 66.8 26.6 27.4 28.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 29.3 30.1 30.7 2.2 77.7 66.5 27.0 27.8 28.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 29.7 30.5 30.9 2.1 76.9 67.3 26.5 27.5 28.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 22.6 23.2 29.0 2.2 76.6 69.6 19.9 20.6 21.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 29.9 30.6 28.9 1.9 75.0 67.0 27.1 27.6 28.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 28.6 28.4 25.8 1.2 68.8 62.0 25.6 26.7 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 29.0 29.6 30.5 1.9 74.7 64.6 26.9 27.7 28.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 17.7 17.9 26.7 1.5 72.2 63.2 14.4 16.1 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 29.4 30.3 29.2 2.0 76.0 67.2 26.5 27.6 28.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 28.9 29.4 27.6 1.7 73.6 64.7 26.3 27.1 28.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 29.3 30.1 28.7 2.0 75.3 67.7 26.7 27.4 28.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 28.5 29.0 28.2 1.7 73.4 65.4 25.9 26.7 27.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 29.6 28.7 27.0 1.2 67.1 61.6 26.9 27.8 28.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 29.1 28.9 28.1 1.5 71.9 62.7 26.8 27.1 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 30.5 31.2 30.1 2.4 79.8 71.8 28.1 28.4 29.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 30.5 30.5 28.2 1.8 73.8 66.6 27.6 28.5 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 28.8 29.1 30.5 2.0 75.6 65.9 26.0 27.6 28.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 28.1 27.5 26.6 1.3 69.8 61.1 25.2 26.3 27.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 28.8 30.0 30.9 2.3 78.9 67.8 26.3 27.1 28.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 20.9 23.0 23.6 0.7 63.2 56.1 20.6 22.1 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 29.7 29.6 29.9 1.8 74.5 65.8 26.4 27.5 28.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 29.1 29.7 30.2 2.0 76.7 66.1 26.8 27.8 28.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 29.1 30.4 30.8 2.3 79.0 68.6 26.6 27.1 28.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 28.8 28.5 28.4 1.6 72.8 63.8 26.1 26.9 28.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 29.5 30.2 28.8 1.8 75.0 65.8 27.1 27.7 29.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 29.4 29.1 27.7 1.6 69.9 64.9 26.5 27.5 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 29.1 29.7 29.6 1.9 75.8 65.7 26.3 27.4 28.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 30.4 31.0 29.3 2.2 77.4 70.1 27.9 28.5 30.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 22.6 23.2 25.3 1.0 67.1 58.4 20.3 22.0 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 29.0 29.8 30.7 2.1 77.2 66.0 26.5 27.5 28.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------